What if Rich Rod, WVU Fail to Make a Bowl Game in 2026?

Although it’s only set to be year two for Rich Rodriguez back in Morgantown, there’s a lot of pressure for this team to turn the corner and get back on track. While his return to the program sparked a ton of optimism, there was a large segment of the fan base that was skeptical of the hire, believing he wouldn’t be able to replicate the success he had in his first stint.

Year one did not go well whatsoever, finishing the season with a 4-8 record, and the staff was unable to find very many building blocks for the future. Because of how successful the Mountaineers were in high school recruiting, in addition to the work that they did in the transfer portal, most people, including me, expect there will be a much better product on the field this fall and that it will look exactly like a Rich Rodriguez-led football team.

But what if that doesn’t happen?

Rich Rodriguez — WVU Athletics Communications

No one wants to think of the worst-case scenario, but it is a possibility. Heck, even winning the Big 12 title is a possibility, and we’ll have plenty of optimistic articles discussing the chances of that or something close to it happening. So no, this isn’t to rile anybody up or create division within the fan base, it’s just a what-if conversation. I largely bring this up because WVU's win total for 2026 was recently set at 5.5.

Given the schedule that West Virginia has, they should be able to get to a bowl game, thanks to a favorable start to the year and having only four true road games. If they happen to fall to Virginia in Charlotte and stumble out of the gate in Big 12 play, the Mountaineers could be in for another disappointing season as the competition intensifies in the final month of the season with games against TCU, Texas Tech, Kansas, Houston, and Utah.

For me, it’s all about how you get to the record you finish with

West Virginia University head coach Rich Rodriguez | Christopher Hall - West Virginia on SI

As WVU AD Wren Baker has stated numerous times, he doesn’t put a win total out there as a goal because several different things can happen, where you finish higher or lower than that when total, but may feel better or worse, depending on what happened.

If WVU manages to go 5-7, but is crushed once again by injuries, everyone will still be upset, but will have the understanding that better injury luck could have changed some outcomes of games. If they have that record in 2026 and injuries are not the problem, then it puts an incredible amount of pressure on Rodriguez in year three.

He is not getting fired after two years, regardless of what happens, nor should he. We're not having any hot seat talk here either. Instead, the real concern, in my opinion, would be that donors and local businesses may be hesitant to continue to put up money, causing WVU to fall even further behind in the NIL game.

Because it’s only year two, no one is expecting this team to be contending for the College Football Playoff, but it is reasonable for fans and said donors to see progress and building blocks emerge to get the program back on track. Going 6-6 and losing three games by one possession is much better than going 7-5, where you are uncompetitive in the majority of those losses.

The one thing Rodriguez and the Mountaineers need to have happen this year isn’t necessarily to reach a certain win total, but to create excitement and optimism for the future, which hasn’t existed in a long time. It's pivotal for the health of the program and to keep those with deep pockets interested in helping the team move forward.