Why the Stars Have Aligned for Luke Fickell, Wisconsin to Finally Beat Iowa

Luke Fickell hasn't beaten Iowa yet as the head coach of the Wisconsin Badgers; he's 0-3, losing by a combined score of 94-16.

But he finally has a fighting chance, and dare I say, a golden opportunity to knock off the Hawkeyes in Kinnick Stadium on Halloween.

The Hawkeyes have been something of an albatross around this program's neck. Not only are they a direct and bitter rival who've absolutely taken the Badgers behind the woodshed the past two years, but they play the same style of football (or at least the style of football Wisconsin wants to play): tough, nasty and disciplined, with a punishing ground game and an impermeable defense.

And while I still expect this game to be an extremely tight, ugly fistfight in the trenches, Wisconsin also has its best chance to knock off Iowa since Fickell took the reins in Madison. This is an opportunity he can't afford to waste. Here's why:

Fickell finally has his starting quarterback

Wisconsin Badgers quarterback Braedyn Locke (18) reacts with head coach Luke Fickell during the fourth quarter against the Iowa Hawkeyes at Kinnick Stadium. | USA TODAY Sports via Reuters Connect

In Wisconsin's first meeting with Iowa under Fickell, he actually began the game with his starting quarterback, Tanner Mordecai. But after going 12-of-20 passing for 106 yards, he broke his hand on the helmet of an Iowa defender, forcing Braedyn Locke into the game. The latter completed half his passes, threw a pick and finished with a 32.3 QBR.

Next season, in Iowa City, it was Locke once again with starter Tyler Van Dyke long gone. He was 15-of-29 for 137 yards, one touchdown and two interceptions amidst a 42-10 loss.

Last fall, Wisconsin was already on its third-string quarterback when it faced Iowa, trotting out Hunter Simmons in a 37-0 shellacking. He finished with 82 yards and two interceptions on 8-of-21 passing.

Colton Joseph hasn't been perfect this season, but he's given Wisconsin its most consistent quarterback play its had since Mordecai, and his legs add a new element to this offense. Fickell finally has his starter against Iowa; he must capitalize.

Iowa has QB problems of its own

Iowa Hawkeyes quarterback Jeremy Hecklinski (10) and Iowa Hawkeyes quarterback Hank Brown (9). | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Iowa, meanwhile, is dealing with quarterback issues of its own. They aren't of the injury variety; they're simply of the poor play variety.

The Hawkeyes have gone back-and-fourth between Jeremy Hecklinski and Hank Brown this fall. They appeared to settle on Brown, before an injury forced Hecklinski to start against Washington, where he shredded the Huskies and was promoted to starter. The very next game, he was promptly benched amidst Iowa's brutal offensive showing in the upset loss to Minnesota. Brown didn't play much better in his stead, throwing two interceptions.

Iowa has tentatively announced Brown as the starter for Saturday morning, but I firmly expect to see both gunslingers unless Brown produces a Ty Dieffenbach-esque performance against Wisconsin's secondary.

The past three years, it's been the Badgers with the quarterback problems and uncertainty in this game. Now, the script has flipped and it's Iowa that can't figure out the quarterback. This game always comes down to who can control the line of scrimmage, but turnovers are a key facet as well, and Wisconsin has a great shot to force a few off the Hawkeyes' struggling gunslingers.

Iowa's top playmaker is done for the year

Iowa Hawkeyes running back Kamari Moulton. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Kamari Moulton's season-ending hand injury is a big deal. The tailback was easily Iowa's leading rusher with 541 yards and four touchdowns on 6.3 yards per carry. He also easily led the Hawkeyes with 26 missed tackles forced; no other Hawkeye has more than seven.

Simply put, Moulton was Iowa's most dangerous playmaker on offense. The Hawkeyes still have a handful of capable backs, but none comparable to Moulton. This is a big blow to Iowa's ground game, and Wisconsin must take advantage of Iowa's short-handed offense.

How good are the Hawkeyes really?

Iowa Hawkeyes wide receiver Reece Vander Zee (2) reacts after a pass meant for him is intercepted. | USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect

Iowa was 5-1 and No. 15 in the country before its loss to Minnesota last week. But how good are the Hawkeyes really this year?

They destroyed Northern Illinois and FCS Northern Iowa in their out-of-conference slate, but also only beat Iowa State 16-13. The Cyclones are 3-4 (1-3 in the Big 12) and are universally considered one of the worst teams in their conference.

In the Big Ten slate, Iowa is 2-2. It needed a miracle last-play touchdown to knock off a Michigan team that's currently 4-3 (1-3 Big Ten) and let now-benched Wolverines quarterback Bryce Underwood toss for 276 yards. The Hawkeyes beat Washington, which also sits at 4-3 (1-3 Big Ten) with losses to Ohio State and the aforementioned defeat to Minnesota.

Iowa doesn't have a win against a team with a winning record in Big Ten play. Their best win is Michigan, and that victory, at the time a top-20 upset on the road, has aged like milk with how the Wolverines look at this point.

Iowa, especially at Kinnick Stadium, is always a tough, physical oppponent. But the Hawkeyes aren't world-beaters this fall.

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