Boxing

Jake Paul vs Anthony Joshua Betting Data Reveals Surprising Fan Favorite

Boxing fans have a clear lean when betting on the upcoming Jake Paul vs. Anthony Joshua fight.
Grant Young|
Jake Paul
Jake Paul | Gary A. Vasquez-Imagn Images

While there are several fascinating aspects of Jake Paul's upcoming fight against Anthony Joshua on December 19 in Miami, Florida, the way that betting lines shook out was among the most compelling parts of the pre-fight hype.

FanDuel Sportsbook released its opening betting odds for the fight soon after it was announced, and Jake Paul was listed as a +770 underdog. Anthony Joshua, on the other hand, was a gigantic -1450 favorite.

Many people felt (and still do feel) like Joshua should be an even bigger favorite, given the massive size, skill, and experience advantage over Paul.

Jake Paul
IMAGO / ZUMA Press Wire

However, despite what some would suggest, one can't deny that Jake Paul has at least a puncher's chance against Joshua. Paul conveyed his likeliest path to victory during his December 10 appearance on The Pat McAfee Show, saying:

"When I figure out his pacing, his style, his speed, his footwork, he's gonna get a little bit tired trying to chase me around. And then I'm gonna set up the shot. I'm not gonna say exactly what, but I see what it is, and I think it will end in the fifth or sixth round."

While Paul didn't want to say it out loud, anybody who has watched him fight knows that his "shot" is the overhand right, which he used to put Tyron Woodley's lights out in 2021 and has used to great effect on many of his professional fights to this point.

Jake Paul vs. Anthony Joshua Betting Ticket% Raises Eyebrows

Jake Paul vs Anthony Joshua
Jake Paul vs Anthony Joshua | Sam Navarro-Imagn Images

BetMGM's X account posted a graphic on December 11 that showed some of the betting movement on their platform for Paul vs. Joshua eight days before the fight. And several aspects of the graphic show that many fans seem to believe Paul has a good chance to land that right hand against Joshua.

The graphic shows that 79% of the Ticket% (the percentage of total individual bets placed on a specific outcome) is on Jake Paul, while 78% of the Handle% (the total amount of money wagered on a specific outcome) is also on Paul. Only 3% of the Ticket% is on Joshua, and 9% of the Handle% is on him.

To be clear, this doesn't mean that 79% of bettors think Jake Paul will win. Rather, since Joshua is such a gigantic favorite (BetMGM has him at -900 currently), the smart money would be on Paul to win, in terms of the potential betting return this would provide.

Still, it's fascinating to see so much support for Paul on this sportsbook.

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Grant Young
GRANT YOUNG

Grant Young is a Staff Writer for On SI’s Boxing, New York Mets, Indiana Fever, and Women’s Fastbreak sites. Before joining SI in 2024, he wrote for various boxing and sports verticals such as FanBuzz and NY Fights. Young has a bachelor’s degree in marketing and a master’s degree in creative writing with an emphasis on sports nonfiction from the University of San Francisco, where he played five seasons of Division 1 baseball. He fought Muay Thai professionally in Thailand in 2023, loves a good essay, and is driven crazy trying to handle a pitpull puppy named Aura. Young lives in San Diego and was raised in the San Francisco Bay Area.