Big Ten QB leads wide-open Heisman race heading into Week 5

Fernando Mendoza leads the Heisman race after a breakout start, with major Week 5 showdowns looming.

Indiana Hoosiers quarterback Fernando Mendoza is the new betting favorite to win the Heisman Trophy | Lucas Boland-Imagn Images

The Heisman Trophy picture has a new frontrunner. Indiana quarterback Fernando Mendoza has vaulted to the top of the odds board at BetMGM heading into Week 5, resetting the early-season race for college football’s most prestigious award.

Mendoza surged into pole position following a dazzling performance in Week 4, where he completed 21 of 23 passes for five touchdowns in a 63–10 rout of Illinois. The win was Indiana’s most dominant of the season, and Mendoza’s breakout effort gave him 14 touchdown passes on the year, the most in the country. He also has added two rushing scores, making him one of the nation’s most productive players through four weeks.

The Hoosiers’ rising star had already been climbing the rankings, but the race opened even wider when Oklahoma quarterback John Mateer was sidelined indefinitely with a hand injury. Mateer, who had propelled Oklahoma to wins over Michigan and Auburn, was considered one of the top contenders for the award until the news of his surgery shifted the spotlight. Now, Mendoza enters Week 5 as the betting favorite at +650, followed closely by Oregon quarterback Dante Moore and Ohio State wide receiver Jeremiah Smith.

Fernando Mendoza Surges Into Heisman Lead

Indiana’s hopes were high when Mendoza arrived from the transfer portal, but his last three outings have exceeded expectations. Over that stretch, he has accounted for all 14 of his touchdown passes and showcased elite efficiency. He currently ranks among the national leaders in completion percentage and passer rating, all while keeping the Hoosiers undefeated.

Mendoza’s emergence also reflects a broader resurgence of quarterback play in the Big Ten. Alongside him, USC’s Jayden Maiava has emerged as a national leader in passer efficiency, yards per attempt, and yards per completion.

Indiana Hoosiers quarterback Fernando Mendoza (15) is the new betting favorite to win the Heisman Trophy heading into Week 5. | Rich Janzaruk/Herald-Times / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Maiava’s latest outing included five total touchdowns against Michigan State, showing how dangerous he is within Lincoln Riley’s offensive system.

Beyond the Big Ten, TCU quarterback Josh Hoover has also joined the Heisman mix. Hoover leads the nation in passing yards per game at 333.3 and added five touchdowns in the Horned Frogs’ rivalry win against SMU. These names, once considered outside favorites, now sit firmly in the spotlight thanks to their consistency and explosiveness.

Injuries And New Contenders Reshape The Race

Mateer’s setback has been the biggest story of the week, not just for Oklahoma’s season but for the Heisman race itself. Analysts noted how vital he was to the Sooners’ 4-0 start, with his blend of passing and running ability making him one of the most dynamic players in college football. Without him, Oklahoma faces major uncertainty and one of the sport’s most visible stars has been forced out of the national conversation.

Utah quarterback Devon Dampier is another candidate whose trajectory has shifted. He entered Week 4 with strong odds but was limited by an ankle injury and struggled against Texas Tech, throwing two interceptions in the loss. He has since fallen off the board, underscoring how quickly injuries can derail even the most promising campaigns.

Oregon Ducks quarterback Dante Moore has emerged among the Heisman Trophy betting favorites. | Ben Lonergan/The Register-Guard / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

As the race resets, new longshots are also starting to gain attention. Washington quarterback Demond Williams Jr. has flashed dual-threat potential, combining consistent rushing production with efficient passing. Though Washington has yet to face a Power Four opponent, his early numbers have put him on the radar at +5000.

The next stage of the Heisman chase will unfold in a weekend filled with high-stakes showdowns. Marquee games include Oregon’s Dante Moore visiting Penn State, Georgia’s Gunner Stockton hosting Alabama, and Texas A&M’s Marcel Reed looking to add another signature victory to his resume. Each matchup gives candidates a chance to either separate themselves or fade back into the crowded field.

Indiana will look to keep its momentum going with Mendoza under center as the Hoosiers prepare for their Week 5 matchup on the road against the Iowa Hawkeyes.

Latest Heisman Trophy odds from BetMGM

(Odds updated as of Saturday, Sept. 27, 10:40 a.m. ET)

• Indiana QB Fernando Mendoza (+650)
• Oregon QB Dante Moore (+1000)
• Ohio State WR Jeremiah Smith (+1200)
• Miami QB Carson Beck (+1200)
• Georgia QB Gunner Stockton (+1400)
• Texas A&M QB Marcel Reed (+1500)
• Tennessee QB Joey Aguilar (+1500)
• USC QB Jayden Maiava (+1600)