College Football HQ

Heisman Trophy index: Arch Manning's bumpy season continues vs. Florida

Preseason Heisman favorite continues to see his odds plummet after 3-2 start

Khari Demos

Florida Gators' defensive end Tyreak Sapp (94) and linebacker Myles Graham (5) sack Texas Longhorns quarterback Arch Manning (16).
Florida Gators' defensive end Tyreak Sapp (94) and linebacker Myles Graham (5) sack Texas Longhorns quarterback Arch Manning (16). / Matt Pendleton-Imagn Images
In this story:

Remember when Arch Manning was favored to win the Heisman Trophy? Man, time flies.

After entering the 2025 season as the undisputed favorite to win college football's top honor, Manning has had an uneven start to his first full season as a starter for the Texas Longhorns.

Manning and the Longhorns are off to a 3-2 start. Their most recent game was a loss to an unranked Florida team that entered the game at 1-3.

And it doesn't help that Manning has not been sharp in these first five games. Against the Gators, he went 16 for 29 with 263 passing yards, two touchdown passes and two interceptions. He's now up to five INTs on the year, as he's been picked off in all but one game.

So, where does that leave his Heisman odds? Not in great shape, to say the least.

Going from +900 odds to +8000 is a preciptious drop. But when you break down the junior QB's play, it's understandable.

Manning has a 2.2-to-1 TD-to-INT ratio. He has a 60 percent completion rate, with three games below that threshold on the season. He has yet to complete 20 passes in a game all season.

But it doesn't help when considering the lack of team success, too. It's not looked down upon to lose to the defending national champions in Ohio State. But Texas barely handled UTEP and lost to Florida, the program's first loss to an unranked team since 2022.

Manning would have to put on a herculean effort in the second half of the season to claim the Heisman Trophy. But if his first game in SEC play is any indication, Manning may be a year away from truly competing for the top honor in college football.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

Published |Modified
Khari Demos
KHARI DEMOS

Khari Demos is an award-winning sports media creator and is a contributor for Bills On SI. He has written sports betting article covering the NFL for The Athletic and has written pieces about the NBA, MLB, college football and basketball, and more, throughout his career.

Home/Betting