Week 10 college football lines that were off the mark

Josh Helmholdt | Nov 3, 2025

The Indiana Hoosiers continue to dominate in games where they are heavily-favored this season. / Tommy Gilligan-Imagn Images

As the college football season has moved into its final month, we are starting to see the majority of missed lines come from the traditional Group of Five conferences. The biggest disparity from pre-game odds in Week 10, however, came from a pair of G5 schools that should be well known to odds makers.

Fresno State 30, Boise State 7

A once-popular College Football Playoff pick, Boise State now drops out of the Mountain West Conference lead after being embarrassed at home by Fresno State Saturday afternoon. The Bulldogs used a 20-0 second half to pull away from Boise State and secure their sixth win of the season. Both of these schools are set to join the revamped Pac-12 Conference starting with the 2026 season, and Fresno State has all the momentum to kick off the new allegiance, winning three straight in this rivalry.

Gametime odds: Fresno State +17.5

Difference: 40.5 points

Arizona 52, Colorado 17

Head coach Deion Sanders has not found many answers for his Colorado football team this season. / Ron Chenoy-Imagn Images

Now in Deion Sanders’ third year as the head coach in Boulder, these Buffaloes still are not ready for prime time. Colorado falls to 3-6 on the season and is likely to be sitting home this post-season with a couple formidable opponents left on the schedule. Arizona junior quarterback Noah Fifita threw four touchdown passes in the win, and was aided by a defense that forced five turnovers. The Wildcats are headed toward bowl eligibility, now sitting with a 5-3 record.

Gametime odds: Arizona -4.5

Difference:  30.5 points

UTSA 48, Tulane 26

The spread on this game moved three points in Tulane’s direction prior to Thursday night’s kickoff, but it was UTSA backers who found themselves holding winning tickets after the Roadrunners dropped an Acme anvil on the Green Wave. UTSA quarterback Owen McCown was absolutely surgical, completing 31-of-33 passes for 370 yards and four touchdowns on the night. For Tulane, this was their first loss in American Athletic Conference play, likely ending their playoff hopes.

Gametime odds: UTSA +6

Difference: 28 points

Buffalo 28, Bowling Green 3

Former Heisman Trophy winner Eddie George falls to 3-6 in his first season as head coach of the Bowling Green Falcons. / Jamie Rhodes-Imagn Images

Bowling Green has now lost three straight since beating rival Toledo in the Battle of I-75 last month. The Falcons were favored in all three of those games, including being installed as 2.5-point favorites at home against Buffalo this past weekend. The Bulls made quick work of that line, scoring 28 unanswered to open the game and leaving Ohio with their record now at 5-4. Buffalo linebacker Red Murdock forced a fumble for the sixth straight game, and now holds the career FBS record with 17 forced fumbles.

Gametime odds: Buffalo +2.5

Difference: 27.5 points

Liberty 59, Delaware 30

Liberty had a rude welcome for Delaware in the Blue Hens’ first season as part of Conference USA, which is also their first season as part of the Football Bowl Subdivision (FBS). Based on the pre-game line, this was supposed to be a close contest with the Flames favored by just 3.5 points at home. Delaware actually had a better record on the season coming in, but both schools sit at 4-4 following Liberty’s victory on Saturday.

Gametime odds: Liberty -3.5

Difference: 25.5 points

East Carolina 45, Temple 14

East Carolina does not have a shot at the College Football Playoff, but they are putting together a resume that should earn them a very nice bowl selection come December. Temple is no slouch, with two of their three losses this season prior to Saturday coming against Oklahoma and Georgia Tech. The Pirates did not have trouble, however, handling Temple’s balanced attack, though, holding the Owls scoreless in the second half. East Carolina will now look to secure bowl eligibility this week against a 1-7 Charlotte team. 

Gametime odds: East Carolina -5.5

Difference: 25.5 points

James Madison 52, Texas State 20

A Tuesday night matchup between Sun Belt Conference foes James Madison and Texas State gave us our first faulty line of Week 10. Texas State had lost three straight coming into this game, but their average margin of defeat was less than four points and their offense had averaged 36 points in those three games. Combine that with the Bobcats being at home, and the seven-point spread against 6-1 James Madison could be justified. The Dukes did not see any justification, however, easily dispatching Texas State. 

Gametime odds: JMU -7

Difference: 25 points

Louisiana Tech 55, Sam Houston State 14

Louisiana Tech had lost to the spread in its previous two games before meeting 0-7 Sam Houston State Friday night, but the Bulldogs were 5-0 against the spread to start the season. All things considered, 16.5 points at home against a winless team on the last day of October was just not enough and Louisiana Tech made their detractors pay. The Bulldogs’ offense had four touchdowns on the scoreboard before Sam Houston State had barely gotten off the bus in this rout. 

Gametime odds: Louisiana Tech -16.5

Difference: 24.5 points

Baylor 30, UCF 3

Baylor's Sawyer Robertson is the NCAA's passing leader to this point in the 2025 college football season. / Raymond Carlin III-Imagn Images

The Baylor Bears got back to their winning ways on Saturday after back-to-back losses to TCU and Cincinnati in previous weeks. After starting the season 3-0, UCF had stumbled recently as well and now sit at .500 with this loss. Quarterback Sawyer Robertson has been the star for Baylor all season, and he threw for another 267 yards and three touchdowns in this game. It was the Bears defense, however, that ensured this win, giving up just 225 yards and three points.

Gametime odds: Baylor -3

Difference: 24 points

Coastal Carolina 44, Marshall 27

Marshall looked like it was ready to party on The Beach when defensive back Boogie Trotter intercepted Coastal Carolina on the Chanticleers’ opening drive and took it back for a score. JUCO transfer Samari Collier showed a lot of poise in just his third game as Coastal Carolina’s starting quarterback, however, coming back from that interception to throw for two touchdowns and run for two more scores. The Chanticleers go on to face Georgia State, looking for their fourth straight win behind Collier.

Gametime odds: Coastal Carolina +7

Difference: 24 points

Indiana 55, Maryland 10

Maryland came out ready to battle with No. 2 ranked Indiana Saturday afternoon, putting the first points on the board and keeping this game close into the second quarter. Curt Cignett’s squad, however, eventually gets theirs, and they got it in bunches over the final 35 minutes of this contest to improve to 9-0 with a trip to Penn State next on the schedule. Indiana is now 4-2 against the spread this season in games in which they are favored by more than 20 points. 

Gametime odds: Indiana -21.5

Difference: 23.5 points

Florida State 42, Wake Forest 7

The Seminoles may need to run the table in November for Mike Norvell to keep his job at Florida State past this season. / Melina Myers-Imagn Images

This was probably too little, too late for Florida State and head coach Mike Norvell, but the Seminoles finally looked like the team they were expected to be after beating Alabama in the season opener and starting 3-0. This was Florida State’s first win in 42 days, and we will see if it sparks a resurgence that allows Norvell to stay in his post in Tallahassee. Wake Forest had a 5-2 record coming into this contest and were expected to be competitive, but was completely dominated in all phases of this game.

Gametime odds: Florida State -11.5

Difference: 23.5 points

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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