LSU vs. Arkansas score prediction by college football computer model
A pair of 2-1 SEC West rivals kick things off this weekend in one of the under-the-radar games during an action-packed day of football, as No. 12 LSU welcomes Arkansas to Death Valley during college football's Week 4 action on Saturday.
LSU is coming off a statement trouncing against Mississippi State in the SEC opener a week ago, thrashing the Bulldogs in a 41-14 decision that saw Jayden Daniels complete more than 88 percent of his passes and wide receiver Malik Nabers go over 200 yards as the Tigers' offense seems to have recovered from the Week 1 loss.
Arkansas is seven points away from being undefeated after succumbing to a late surge against BYU at home a week ago and will once again be without star tailback and key offensive weapon Raheim Sanders, who is still dealing with an injury sustained in the opener and is missing more time than the Razorbacks expected he would.
What can we expect when things kick off? Let's check in on how the SP+ prediction model devised by ESPN analyst Bill Connelly projects the matchup, along with the latest betting information for the Week 4 game.
LSU vs. Arkansas predictions
LSU vs. Arkansas picks, best bets
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Score predictions: The simulations favor LSU to win the game with 74 percent likelihood against Arkansas and by a projected score of 35 to 24, with a forecasted 11 point margin of victory.
Point spread: That's not enough to cover the spread as LSU comes into the game as 17.5 point favorites against Arkansas, according to the lines at SI Sportsbook, but it's enough to bet the over of 55.5 points.
FPI prediction: College Football Power Index, another computer predictive system, projects that LSU will win the game in 88.3 percent of the 20,000 simulations it uses to pick winners. Conversely, Arkansas has the 11.7 percent chance of victory.
Where the bets are: The spread consensus pick is sticking with LSU to cover the 17.5 point spread, according to 58 percent of the wagers being placed on the game. That leaves 42 percent of bets picking the Razorbacks to cover +17.5 or win in the upset.
Betting trends: Hogs are 11-4-1 ATS in their last 16 games vs. LSU... Total went over in 5 of Arkansas' last 6 games and last 5 on the road... Razorbacks are 3-11 SU in the last 14 games against LSU on the road... LSU is 3-8 ATS in its last 11 Week 4 games... Total went over in LSU's last 7 games and 6 of last 7 SEC games.
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LSU vs. Arkansas schedule
When: Sat., Sept. 23
Where: LSU
Time: 6 p.m. Central
TV: ESPN network
Stream live: fuboTV (Try for free)
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