Ohio State vs. Notre Dame score prediction by college football computer model
For the eighth time since the 1935 season, but for just the third time under the eyes of Touchdown Jesus, Ohio State and Notre Dame will square off on the same field as the Buckeyes visit the Fighting Irish in a highly-anticipated battle of top-10 teams in college football's Week 4 action on Saturday.
The biggest game of Marcus Freeman's short tenure, the Irish boast more than enough weapons to make this interesting, including veteran transfer quarterback Sam Hartman, a skilled technician who is already over 1,000 yards passing with 13 touchdowns and no turnovers, leading an efficient and balanced attack aided by tailback Audric Estime, a 500-plus yard rusher good for over 8 yards per carry.
Ohio State boasts arguably the single-greatest rotation of overall skill talent in the nation, especially at wide receiver thanks to NFL-ready threats like Marvin Harrison, Jr. and Emeka Egbuka (3 TD catches each), combined with a strong rushing attack posting 5.2 ypc led by TreVeyon Henderson and Miyan Williams, who have 6 of OSU's 7 rushing scores.
What can we expect when things kick off? Let's check in on how the SP+ prediction model devised by ESPN analyst Bill Connelly projects the matchup, along with the latest betting information for the Week 4 game.
Ohio State vs. Notre Dame predictions
Ohio State vs. Notre Dame picks, best bets
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Score prediction: This could come down to the narrowest of margins, as Ohio State is projected to defeat Notre Dame by a combined score of 28 to 27, with the Buckeyes sitting at 53 percent to win the game outright by a margin of 1.4 points, according to the SP+ predictive model and its final simulations.
Point spread: Ohio State comes into the game as 3.5 point favorites over Notre Dame, according to the lines at SI Sportsbook, which set the total at 55.5 points.
FPI prediction: College Football Power Index, another computer analytic model that projects games, predicts that Ohio State has the 65.8 percent chance to win outright, compared to Notre Dame at 34.2 percent, after simulating the game 20,000 times to pick a straight-up winner.
Where the bets are: A majority of bettors are siding with Notre Dame, as 68 percent of wagers are picking the Fighting Irish at +3.5, compared to 32 percent who say Ohio State will cover at-3.5, while 62 percent of bets pick the game to go under 55.5 points.
Betting trends: OSU is 3-6 ATS in its last 9 games... Total went over in 11 of OSU's last 14 games... Buckeyes are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as the favorite... Notre Dame is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games... Total went over in ND's last 5 games... Irish are 6-14 SU in their last 20 games as the underdog.
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Ohio State vs. Notre Dame schedule
When: Sat., Sept. 23
Where: Notre Dame, Ind.
Time: 7:30 p.m. Eastern
TV: NBC network
Stream live: fuboTV (Try for free)
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