Texas vs. Kansas score prediction by college football computer model

A pair of Big 12 rivals that took turns scoring 50-plus points against each other the last two years meet up this weekend as newly-ranked, undefeated No. 24 Kansas hits the road against resurgent No. 3 ranked Texas in college football's Week 5 action on Saturday.

Rankings: AP | Coaches | ESPN

What can we expect when things kick off? Let's check in on how the SP+ prediction model devised by ESPN analyst Bill Connelly projects the matchup, along with the latest betting information for the Week 5 game.

Kansas vs. Texas predictions

Score prediction

The simulations project a big win for the Longhorns, who are estimated to defeat the Jayhawks by a score of 39 to 19, a projected scoring margin of 19.5 points, and an overall win probability of 87 percent to win the game outright.

Point spread

Texas comes into the game as strong 16.5 point favorites against Kansas, according to the lines at SI Sportsbook, which set the total at 61.5 points for the matchup.

If you're using this projection to bet on the game, you should take Texas to cover the 16.5 point spread, win on the moneyline at -901, and hit the under.

Computer prediction

Other computer analytics models also project Texas will win the game in convincing fashion. That includes College Football Power Index, a projection system that simulates games 20,000 times using a wide variety of data to pick winners.

FPI estimates that Texas has a 93.5 percent chance to win the game, coming out ahead of Kansas in 18,700 of the 20,000 simulations. The Jayhawks, by contrast, win out in the remaining 1,300 projections (6.5%).

Where the bets are

The spread consensus pick takes a slightly different view, as 60 percent of bettors are sticking with Kansas at +16.5 while the other 40 percent say the Longhorns will win and cover the generous spread.

A super-majority, over 83 percent of wagers, pick the combined game total to go over 61.5 points.

Betting trends

+ KU is 2-6 ATS in the last 8

+ Total went under in 4 of Texas' last 5

+ Total went over in 6 of KU's last 8

+ Longhorns are 1-4 ATS in the last 5 at home on Saturday

+ Jayhawks are 5-1 ATS in the last 6 vs. Texas

+ Texas is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 vs. Big 12 teams

+ Total went over in 6 of KU's last 7 road games

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Kansas at Texas schedule

When: Sat., Sept. 30
Time: 2:30 p.m. Central
TV: ABC network
Stream live: fuboTV (Try for free)

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