College football rankings: Comparing preseason No. 1 teams to national champions

Looking over recent national championship history and seeing how good the AP top 25 rankings are at predicting college football's best team
College football rankings: Comparing preseason No. 1 teams to national champions
College football rankings: Comparing preseason No. 1 teams to national champions

Alabama came into the fall as the consensus No. 1 team in the AP top 25 preseason college football rankings, but it didn't finish there.

How important is that No. 1 spot, really? When it comes to winning the national championship, it turns out that being the top dog isn't the most important thing.

Just two teams that started the season No. 1 in the preseason rankings in the 21st century have gone on to win the national championship.

So, while history may not always be with the No. 1 team in the preseason, it's definitely a good idea to be somewhere in the top five, going on recent data.

Here is a look at the preseason No. 1 college football teams since 2000, and where they finished in the Top 25, along with the national champion and where they started the season.

College football rankings: Comparing preseason No. 1 teams to national champions

BCS rankings era

2000 Preseason No. 1: Nebraska (finished No. 8); National Champion: Oklahoma (preseason No. 19)

2001 Preseason No. 1: Florida (finished No. 3); National Champion: Miami (preseason No. 2)

2002 Preseason No. 1: Miami (finished No. 2); National Champion: Ohio State (preseason No. 13)

2003 Preseason No. 1: Oklahoma (finished No. 3); Co-National Champion: USC (preseason No. 8)

— BCS national champion LSU finished No. 2 in the AP Top 25 poll after starting at No. 14 in the 2003 preseason rankings

2004 Preseason No. 1: USC (finished No. 1); National Champion: USC 

2005 Preseason No. 1: USC (finished No. 2); National Champion: Texas (preseason No. 2)

2006 Preseason No. 1: Ohio State (finished No. 2); National Champion: Florida (preseason No. 7)

2007 Preseason No. 1: USC (finished No. 3); National Champion: LSU (preseason No. 2)

2008 Preseason No. 1: Georgia (finished No. 13); National Champion: Florida (preseason No. 5)

2009 Preseason No. 1: Florida (finished No. 3); National Champion: Alabama (preseason No. 5)

2010 Preseason No. 1: Alabama (finished No. 10); National Champion: Auburn (preseason No. 22)

2011 Preseason No. 1: Oklahoma (finished No. 16); National Champion: Alabama (preseason No. 2)

2012 Preseason No. 1: USC (finished unranked); National Champion: Alabama (preseason No. 2)

2013 Preseason No. 1: Alabama (finished No. 7); National Champion: Florida State (preseason No. 11)

College Football Playoff rankings era

2014 Preseason No. 1: Florida State (finished No. 5); National Champion: Ohio State (preseason No. 5)

2015 Preseason No. 1: Ohio State (finished No. 4); National Champion: Alabama (preseason No. 3)

2016 Preseason No. 1: Alabama (finished No. 2); National Champion: Clemson (preseason No. 2)

2017 Preseason No. 1: Alabama (finished No. 1); National Champion: Alabama

2018 Preseason No. 1: Alabama (finished No. 2); National Champion: Clemson (preseason No. 2)

2019 Preseason No. 1: Clemson (finished No. 2); National Champion: LSU (preseason No. 6)

2020 Preseason No. 1: Clemson (finished No. 3); National Champion: Alabama (preseason No. 3)

2021 Preseason No. 1: Alabama (finished No. 2); National Champion: Georgia (preseason No. 5)

2022 Preseason No. 1: Alabama (finished No. 5); National Champion: Georgia (preseason No. 3)

Total appearances in AP Top 25 preseason poll

1. Ohio State — 69; 94.5 percent of polls, 8.3 average ranking

2. Oklahoma — 64; 87.7 percent of polls, 6.6 average ranking

3. USC — 61; 83.6 percent of polls, 9.8 average ranking

4. Notre Dame — 59; 80.8 percent of polls, 9.1 average ranking

5. Alabama — 56; 76.7 percent of polls, 7.2 average ranking

6. Texas — 55; 75.3 percent of polls, 9.1 average ranking

7. Michigan — 51; 69.9 percent of polls, 7.7 average ranking

8. Penn State — 48; 65.8 percent of polls, 11.1 average ranking

9. Nebraska — 46; 63.0 percent of polls, 8.3 average ranking

10. Tennessee — 42; 57.5 percent of polls, 11.9 average ranking


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James Parks
JAMES PARKS

James Parks is the founder and publisher of College Football HQ. He has covered football for a decade, previously managing several team sites and publishing national content for 247Sports.com for five years. His work has also been published on CBSSports.com. He founded College Football HQ in 2020, and the site joined the Sports Illustrated Fannation Network in 2022 and the On SI network in 2024.