ESPN computer predicts college football's conference champions

We're getting closer to the college football season with analysts announcing their predictions for what to expect ahead of the 2022 kickoff.

That includes the ESPN Football Power Index, which announced its projections for which teams have the best chance to win their conferences this year.

ESPN Football Power Index (FPI) college football rankings are a measure of team strength that predicts a team’s future performance.

Rankings and predicted scores are based on 10,000 simulations of a team’s season, using a combination of analytics, including scores to date, quality of opponents, and a team’s schedule.

Predicting college football conference champions

Big 12 — Texas

Chance to win Big 12: 39.8%

To make College Football Playoff: 18.0%

Texas being back has long-since become the stale joke of every offseason, but you can't deny that Steve Sarkisian has been aggressive making things right.

Sark turned out a subpar 5-win team in his debut season, including a home loss to Kansas. But the Longhorns came away with a small, elite group of transfers.

Not least the addition of 5-star quarterback Quinn Ewers, who, though he lacks experience, comes with extremely publicized ability and promise from recruiting analysts. He'll pair with star receiver Xavier Worthy and be complemented by Bijan Robinson, arguably the best back in the nation.

Defensively, this team suffered the lack of a threatening pass rush and leadership in the back seven, both problems Sark thinks he's help solve by adding transfer linebacker Diamonte Tucker-Dorsey and defensive back Ryan Watts.

ACC — Clemson

Chance to win ACC: 59.0%

To make College Football Playoff: 57.4%

Last season for the first time in six years, Clemson failed to win the ACC title or make the playoff, throwing the program, an early CFP dynasty, off schedule.

Injuries on defense and a sluggish offense, to say the least, were the culprits behind Clemson's 10-3 mark last fall. DJ Uiagalelei brings 5-star pedigree to the quarterback position, but only mustered nine touchdowns while throwing 10 picks a year ago for the ACC's second-worst offense.

Now, the Tigers should have everybody healthy on what looks like another elite defensive front - Myles Murphy and Bryan Bresee are stars to watch on the line - while Uiagalelei looks to bring back some of the sparkle he showed in a brief outing in 2020.

Big Ten — Ohio State

Chance to win Big Ten: 73.1%

To make College Football Playoff: 82.7%

Not much stands in the way of the Buckeyes taking the Big Ten back this season, at least not in the conference. OSU opens up at home against Notre Dame and has a shot at revenge against Michigan in the regular season finale.

Ohio State was a two-time loser a year ago, falling at home to Oregon and on the road to Michigan, losing out on the B1G title and a shot at the College Football Playoff.

This time around, the Buckeyes maintain the core of their No. 1 ranked offense, led by Heisman finalist quarterback CJ Stroud, in tandem with leading receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba and an old-school back in TreVeyon Henderson.

The main question hanging over this team is how well first-year coordinator Jim Knowles will be able to tighten the screws defensively after the unit struggled in those two losses last season.

Pac-12 — Utah

Chance to win Pac-12: 25.2%

To make College Football Playoff: 6.3%

Utah recovered from a sluggish start and overcame tragedy a year ago to win 10 games, beat Oregon twice, and win the Pac-12 football championship.

And to cap that off, the Utes played Ohio State to the wire in a thrilling Rose Bowl, piling up 45 points and losing by just three to the Buckeyes.

Now, this team returns two vital components that got it to those heights: quarterback Cameron Rising, who passed for 20 touchdowns a year ago, and Tavion Thomas, the skilled rusher who scored 21 times while covering over 1,100 yards on the ground.

SEC — Alabama

Chance to win SEC: 49.3%

To make College Football Playoff: 79.5%

No surprises here as the Tide are the overwhelming favorites to begin the season at No. 1 in the rankings, but there's some real competition with Georgia, the reigning national champs who come in at 47.1% to win the SEC, according to FPI.

Alabama retains Heisman winner Bryce Young at quarterback and star defender Will Anderson, probably the single best player at any position in college football.

That, in addition to a tight group of blue-chip transfers including receivers Jermaine Burton and Tyler Harrell, defensive back Eli Ricks, tackle Tyler Steen, and uber-productive running back Jahmyr Gibbs.

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