ESPN computer predicts most likely College Football Playoff teams, rankings
The preseason took one major leap forward recently after ESPN released its first Top 25 college football rankings according to its Football Power Index.
It's the usual suspects at the top of the polls this summer, but as last season showed, it's always possible for some unexpected contender to push through and make a run.
Michigan and Cincinnati won their respective conferences and made the College Football Playoff, even if they both lost handily in their semifinal games.
What could the final four look like this season? Recently, the Football Power Index announced its prediction for the most likely semifinal combinations.
Most likely College Football Playoff rankings for 2022 season
ESPN Football Power Index (FPI) college football rankings are a measure of team strength that predicts a team’s future performance.
Predicted scores are based on 10,000 simulations of a team’s season, using a combination of analytics, including scores to date, quality of opponents, and a team’s remaining schedule.
Combination No. 1
Alabama linebacker Will Anderson, arguably the best player in college football
USA Today Images
+ Alabama vs. Ohio State
+ Clemson vs. Georgia
Chance of happening: 20%
Expect to see Alabama and Georgia to contend for the SEC championship once again this season and quite possibly both win final four bids, as well.
Both have important gaps to fill on their rosters, but still have far and away the talent edge over most other programs thanks to their recruiting efforts.
Outside of the SEC, Clemson and Ohio State still have the advantage with their rosters and schedules to earn semifinal qualification.
Combination No. 2
Georgia is the defending College Football Playoff national champion
- Alabama
- Georgia
- Ohio State
- Texas
+ Alabama vs. Texas
+ Georgia vs. Ohio State
Chance of happening: 5%
This model, much like the FPI's initial college football rankings, is very high on Texas this season.
To make the playoff, the Longhorns would have to either beat Alabama early in Austin, run the table, and win the Big 12, or take the conference with that one early-season loss, not lose again, and stayed ranked high all season.
The presence of quarterback Quinn Ewers has a lot of analysts optimistic Texas can turn some heads, but we'll hold our breath until at least the Week 2 game against Alabama.
Combination No. 3
Notre Dame is looking to get back to the College Football Playoff
- Alabama
- Georgia
- Notre Dame
- Ohio State
+ Alabama vs. Ohio State
+ Georgia vs. Notre Dame
Chance of happening: 4%
Another one-two punch out of the SEC in this model, which predicts the loser of that conference's title game will still be good enough to earn the No. 2 ranking.
Which is entirely possible when looking ahead at these two rosters. But this version of the CFP includes Notre Dame which, judging by its being put ahead of Ohio State, indicates the FPI sees a chance that the Irish beat the Buckeyes in Columbus this September.
Combination No. 4
Clemson made six-straight College Football Playoffs prior to 2021
- Alabama
- Clemson
- Ohio State
- Texas
+ Alabama vs. Texas
+ Clemson vs. Ohio State
Chance of happening: 3%
Another prediction model that includes Texas, but the first to not involve Georgia, which would not qualify for the playoff unless it wins the SEC championship with the likes of Clemson and Ohio State also vying for final four participation.
Most projections include Georgia winning the SEC East this season and getting back to the College Football Playoff along with likely West champ Alabama.
Combination No. 5
Texas running back Bijan Robinson, arguably the No. 1 player at his position in college football
- Clemson
- Georgia
- Ohio State
- Texas
+ Clemson vs. Texas
+ Georgia vs. Ohio State
Chance of happening: 3%
The first and only College Football Playoff prediction that doesn't include defending SEC champion Alabama.
And judging by this model, the Crimson Tide could have lost its road game against Texas, which makes the final four in this case.
Clemson has a fighter's chance to run the table this season, but has to fend off improved ACC opponents like Miami, Wake, and NC State, in addition to Notre Dame. And this model predicts Georgia could lose a game somewhere along the way in 2022.
Who got left out?
1. Texas A&M
The Aggies are nowhere to be found in ESPN's College Football Playoff prediction models.
A&M looked like a contender in 2020, losing just one game early but not going higher than No. 5 in the CFP rankings. It lost four games last season, but beat No. 1 Alabama, and wasn't ranked.
Jimbo Fisher just signed arguably the greatest recruiting class of all time and has legitimate game-breakers at the skill positions. But can this team slug through its SEC West slate and finally get over the hump?
2. The Pac-12
No luck for West Coast football this time out, with no Pac-12 teams earning playoff consideration in the FPI predictor.
USC should be on sounder footing after hiring head coach Lincoln Riley, who is bound to make this offense move with 5-star quarterback Caleb Williams and Biletnikoff receiver Jordan Addison in tow.
Oregon, also under new management with Dan Lanning at head coach, and Pac-12 champion Utah didn't make the cut, either.
3. Oklahoma
Maybe no other big-time college football program will look more different than the Sooners, who brought on Brent Venables as head coach this offseason.
That should ensure OU plays solid defense, but there are questions all over the roster as the school undergoes this transition.
New OC Jeff Lebby brings a very solid reputation (he worked at Ole Miss last season) and he has quarterback Dillon Gabriel coming in as a transfer — the two engineered a top 10 offense together at UCF in 2019.
We'll see if that's all enough to stay better than Texas and unseat Baylor as Big 12 champs.
4. Group of 5 teams
Cincinnati was the Cinderella story of last season, becoming the first non-Power 5 team to make the College Football Playoff.
Then came midnight: an ugly semifinal loss against Alabama in which the Bearcats accounted for all of two field goals.
Now UC loses a huge chunk of the talent that got it to the dance (nine draft picks in all), and suddenly the AAC looks more open than usual.
Advantage Houston, who played Cincy in the conference title game last year, and could take the league in 2022, but won't exactly have the firepower to contend for a semifinal bid.
5. Michigan
Last season was one to remember for Michigan, at least until the last game. UM lost one Big Ten matchup, beat Ohio State, won the conference, and made its first College Football Playoff.
Georgia stepped on the Wolverines' hopes in the semifinal, and now this team has to replace a ton of the talent that got it there last year.
Expect a slight step back for Michigan, including a likely loss in Columbus in November, according to most projections, but there's still a firm enough foundation to keep this team in the running for a New Year's bowl.
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