Illinois vs. Purdue odds, spread, lines: Week 11 college football picks, predictions by computer model

Illinois hosts Purdue in a battle between Big Ten West teams with the division title in sight in college football's Week 11 action on Saturday.

The Illini control their own destiny for the division title, needing a win over Purdue plus one more win over Michigan or Northwestern to guarantee a spot in the Big Ten Championship Game.

Illinois is sitting just ahead of a four-way tie at second place in the division, including the Boilermakers, who have lost two straight.

What do the experts think of the matchup? Let's see how the College Football Power Index computer prediction model projects the game.

Illinois vs. Purdue picks, predictions

Illinois' chance of victory: The computer projects that Illinois has the 65.5 percent chance to defeat Purdue on Saturday and move closer to clinching the division title.

Purdue's chance of victory: That leaves the Boilermakers with an outside 34.5 percent shot to upset Illinois and stay in contention themselves.

Illinois vs. Purdue point spread: Illinois comes into the game as the narrow 6.5 point favorites to beat Purdue, according to the lines at SI Sportsbook.

Over/under: 47 points

Moneyline: Purdue +200, Illinois -300

How to watch: The game is set for Sat., Nov. 12 at 11 a.m. Central on the ESPN2 network and streams on fuboTV (Start your free trial).

Illinois predictions: FPI computers rank Illinois as the No. 27 team on the index's 131 college football rankings, which slot teams on a projected per-game scoring margin against average teams: the Illini are an estimated 8.7 points better in that category, according to the projection models. Illinois is the favorite to win the West at 64.2 percent and expected to win 8.6 games.

Purdue predictions: The computer slots the Boilers at No. 46 nationally and estimated to be 5.9 points better than an average team. FPI projects Purdue will win 6.9 games this season.

College Football Power Index

Football Power Index (FPI) college football rankings and computer prediction model are a measure of team strength that predicts a team’s future performance.

Rankings and scores predictions are based on 20,000 simulations of a team’s season, using a combination of analytics, including scores to date, quality of opponents, and a team’s schedule.

College football rankings

According to AP top 25 poll

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