Michigan vs. Michigan State preview, prediction: Week 9 college football picks
Michigan vs. Michigan State preview, prediction: Week 9 college football picks
Week 9 college football picks: Michigan vs. Michigan State
How to watch
When: Sat., Oct. 29
Time: 7:30 p.m. Eastern
TV: ABC network
Stream: fuboTV (Start your free trial)
More college football on SI: College football scores | College football rankings | College football schedule
Odds, point spread, betting lines
Odds courtesy of SI Sportsbook
Line: Michigan -22.5
Michigan State ATS: 2-4-1
Michigan ATS: 4-3
Over/under: 55
Moneyline: MSU +1000, UM -2500
FPI pick: Michigan 90.2%
Related: Michigan vs. Michigan State picks, predictions: Week 9 college football odds, spread, lines
Michigan State at Michigan: What you need to know
1. Michigan can run. This is the 10th best scoring offense in college football (42.7 ppg) and the nation's 7th best rushing attack, good for almost 242 yards per game on the ground, and is 3rd with 24 rushing touchdowns. That's been the engine of Michigan's success on offense, setting their backs loose behind a dominant offensive line. Blake Corum has 901 yards rushing with 13 touchdowns and Donovan Edwards another four TDs. Corum leads the NCAA in rushing scores, is 6th in rushing yards, and second in total TDs. MSU allows just over 153 on ground per game and can get some push off the edges.
2. Sparty's struggles. Last season, it was all Kenneth Walker as this offense would ground and pound its way to a dominant season. But in his absence, Michigan State has yet to forge an identity running the ball. Jalen Berger has five touchdowns, but only just eclipsed 300 yards, while Jalen Broussard is under 200 with a pair of scores. MSU needs to assert itself at the line and take some of the pressure off quarterback Payton Thorne, who already has 7 INTs and lines up against a Michigan team that's 5th nationally with 3.43 sacks per game.
3. McCarthy vs. MSU's secondary. Coming in, Michigan State's primary focus on defense will of course be containing the Wolverines' productive rushing attack. While the Spartans load up the box and try to shut down the running lanes, quarterback J.J. McCarthy should have time to work against a pass defense that ranks 110th nationally allowing 269 yards per game and surrendering almost 13 yards per completion. McCarthy is a 77% passer but commands just the 70th ranked passing offense in the nation. This game should be a good opportunity to bump up those numbers and develop his connections in the deeper portion of the field.
Fast Facts
+ Michigan is 1-3 against MSU at home under Jim Harbaugh
+ MSU has won 10 of the last 14 against Michigan
+ UM is 1st in Big Ten with 241.7 rushing yards per game
+ Spartans have won 5 of the last 7 in Ann Arbor
+ Michigan has outscored opponents 159-37 in the first half of games
+ Michigan State is 102nd nationally with 5.94 yards per play allowed
+ MSU is 12-1 when leading at halftime and 4-10 when trailing under Mel Tucker
+ Michigan is 6th nationally scoring 42.7 points per game
+ Spartans are 10-0 when leading after 1 quarter and 1-10 when trailing under Tucker
+ Michigan is 3rd nationally scoring defense with 12.1 points per game allowed
+ MSU is 12-0 when scoring 30 points under Tucker and 2-9 when allowing 30 or more points
+ The team that out-rushed its opponent won this game in 46 of the last 52 meetings
+ Michigan is 62-4 when leading after three quarters and 5-20 when not under Harbaugh
Michigan vs. Michigan State Prediction
There's no question this rivalry has definitely gone the Spartans' way the last decade-plus, even last season amid Michigan's tremendous improvements that resulted in its first College Football Playoff berth.
But in the 12 months since last year's game, these programs appear to be headed in different directions: Michigan has conserved and built on its success while Michigan State has regressed in the absence of Kenneth Walker.
Its secondary unit, college football's worst a year ago, is hardly better this season, and quarterback J.J. McCarthy, the nation's most efficient passer on a per throw basis, will be able to throw his targets open from the start.
But the Wolverines' back seven could falter, too, against a Spartans receiving corps that can get yards after the catch if given enough room to work.
The sheer passion of this rivalry will be enough to keep Michigan State close in the first half, but Michigan has the equipment at the line of scrimmage when playing offense to balance the attack, move the chains, and finish in the end zone.
College Football HQ Prediction: Michigan 39, Michigan State 20
College football rankings
According to AP top 25 poll
1. Georgia (31 1st-place votes)
2. Ohio State (18)
3. Tennessee (13)
4. Michigan
5. Clemson (1)
6. Alabama
7. TCU
8. Oregon
9. Oklahoma State
10. USC
T-10. Wake Forest
12. UCLA
13. Penn State
14. Utah
15. Ole Miss
16. Syracuse
17. Illinois
18. LSU
19. Kentucky
20. Cincinnati
21. North Carolina
22. Kansas State
23. Tulane
24. NC State
25. South Carolina