Kansas State vs. TCU odds, spread, lines: Week 8 college football picks, predictions by computer model
This weekend brings us a battle between ranked Big 12 rivals as TCU welcomes Kansas State in college football's Week 8 action on Saturday.
No. 17 Kansas State is coming off a bye week riding a three-game win streak, most recently a close, 1-point decision over Iowa State.
TCU, now ranked No. 8 in the AP poll, is riding high after knocking off Oklahoma State at home in double overtime, preserving its undefeated record, and taking the sole No. 1 position in the Big 12 standings.
The Horned Frogs' challenger in that spot? Kansas State, which owns a 5-1 overall record and is 3-0 in conference play coming into DFW.
What do the experts think of this matchup? Let's see how the College Football Power Index computer prediction model projects the game.
Kansas State vs. TCU picks, predictions
Week 8 college football picks: Kansas State vs. TCU
The computers project a comfortable victory for the home team, as TCU has the 66.0 percent chance to defeat Kansas State on Saturday.
That leaves the Wildcats a 34.0 percent shot at handing the Horned Frogs their first loss of the season and moving into the Big 12 lead with what would be the critical head-to-head victory.
Oddsmakers also favor the home side, as TCU comes in the narrow 4.5 point favorites over Kansas State, according to the lines at SI Sportsbook, which set the over/under for 59 points in the matchup.
TCU checks in at No. 13 on the index's 131 college football rankings, a position owing to its projected per-game scoring margin: FPI estimates the Frogs are 13.4 points better than an average team on a neutral field.
That's compared to a plus-9.6 point projection for Kansas State, which is good for the No. 23 position on the computer's recent rankings.
FPI projects TCU will win 9.7 games this season, with a 23.2 percent shot to win the Big 12 conference championship, and a 5.7 percent chance to qualify for the College Football Playoff.
K-State's projected win total is 7.7 games, according to the computer, which gives the team an 8.0 percent shot to win the Big 12 title.
College Football Power Index
Football Power Index (FPI) college football rankings and computer prediction model are a measure of team strength that predicts a team’s future performance.
Rankings and scores predictions are based on 20,000 simulations of a team’s season, using a combination of analytics, including scores to date, quality of opponents, and a team’s schedule.
College football rankings
According to AP top 25 poll
- Georgia
- Ohio State
- Tennessee
- Michigan
- Clemson
- Alabama
- Ole Miss
- TCU
- UCLA
- Oregon
- Oklahoma State
- USC
- Wake Forest
- Syracuse
- Utah
- Penn State
- Kansas State
- Illinois
- Kentucky
- Texas
- Cincinnati
- North Carolina
- NC State
- Mississippi State
- Tulane