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Texas vs. Texas Tech odds, spread, lines: Week 4 college football picks, predictions by computer model

Expert picks, predictions for Texas vs. Texas Tech on the Week 4 college football schedule
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A pair of old in-state rivals meet as Texas and Texas Tech open up Big 12 play in college football's Week 4 action on Saturday.

Both teams are 2-1 on the year: Texas with a 1-point loss to Alabama while Texas Tech defeated a ranked Houston before falling to NC State last week.

What do the experts think of the matchup? Let's see how the College Football Power Index computer prediction model projects the game.

Texas vs. Texas Tech odds, spread, predictions

Texas football cheerleaders at a college football game in the Big 12.

Week 4 college football schedule: Texas vs. Texas Tech

The index favors Texas by a wide margin, as the Longhorns have the 80.5 percent chance of defeating the Red Raiders, according to the computer.

Texas Tech has the 19.6 percent shot to beat the Longhorns at home.

The oddsmakers project a closer game, as Texas comes in the 5.5 point favorites, according to SI Sportsbook, which set the over/under mark at 59.5 points for the matchup.

Texas checks in as the No. 6 team in the computer's 131 college football rankings, good for tops in the Big 12, and projected to win 9.3 games on the season, with a 16.0 percent chance to make the College Football Playoff.

The index estimates that Texas is an average of 19.2 points better than the teams on its schedule, helping it outpace the competition with a national-best 42.1 percent chance to win the Big 12.

Texas Tech is the 47th ranked team on the computer's polling, an average of 4.7 points better than its opponents, and projected to win 5.2 games.

AP top 25 voters named Texas the No. 22 team in its Week 4 poll, a drop of 1 spot despite last week's victory.

College Football Power Index

Football Power Index (FPI) college football rankings and computer prediction model are a measure of team strength that predicts a team’s future performance. 

Rankings and scores predictions are based on 20,000 simulations of a team’s season, using a combination of analytics, including scores to date, quality of opponents, and a team’s schedule.

College football rankings

According to AP top 25 poll

  1. Georgia
  2. Alabama
  3. Ohio State
  4. Michigan
  5. Clemson
  6. Oklahoma
  7. USC
  8. Kentucky
  9. Oklahoma State
  10. Arkansas
  11. Tennessee
  12. NC State
  13. Utah
  14. Penn State
  15. Oregon
  16. Ole Miss
  17. Baylor
  18. Washington
  19. BYU
  20. Florida
  21. Wake Forest
  22. Texas
  23. Texas A&M
  24. Pittsburgh
  25. Miami

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