USC vs. Fresno State football preview, prediction

USC returns home to the Memorial Coliseum with a jump in the polls to host Fresno State in college football's Week 3 action on Saturday.

Southern Cal is 2-0 after big wins over Rice and at Stanford and playing behind an offense that looks as skilled and productive as advertised. Fresno comes in 1-1 after a shock, last-second loss against Oregon State.

Here's what you need to know about Saturday's matchup.

USC vs. Fresno State football preview, prediction

How to watch

When: Sat., Sept. 17

Time: 10:30 p.m. Eastern

TV: Fox network

Stream: fuboTV (Start your free trial)

Game odds, point spread, betting lines

Line: USC -12.5

O/U: 73.5

Moneyline: USC -568 FSU +370

What you need to know

Fresno State: Jake Haener returns as one of college football's most productive quarterbacks. He's put the ball in the air 87 times already in 2 games, and it usually goes where he puts it, as he's hit on almost 75% of his throws. Fresno has 3 receivers over 100 yards, but notably none of them have scored yet, while Jordan Mims gives the unit needed balance, scoring 4 times for almost 200 yards and is plus 5 ypc.

USC: Amid all the preseason hype, the Trojans' defense was as equally maligned as their offense was talked up. But this D has come away with 8 turnovers in 2 games, including 3 pick-sixes in the opener. That's not exactly a reliable foundation to build on, but the aggression is admirable. USC will need to step up the edge rush to throw Haener out of rhythm before he scatters the secondary with the battery of long passes he's made his name on.

USC vs. Fresno State: Fast Facts

+ Jordan Addison is 1st in the Pac-12 with 113 receiving yards per game

+ Fresno back Jordan Mims has scored 30 of the team's 67 points

+ Caleb Williams is 2nd in FBS with a 79.6% completion mark

+ Addison is 3rd in FBS with 4 TDs while averaging 18.8 ypc

+ Haener averages 371 passing yards against Pac-12 teams

+ Williams is 2nd in the Pac-12 with 15.13 yards per completion

+ Fresno scored TDs on 69% of red zone chances last year

+ Williams is 3rd nationally with 12.04 pass yards per attempt

+ FSU is 22-5 under Jeff Tedford all time when scoring first and 5-10 when opponents score first

+ USC is 1st nationally with a 4.50 turnover margin

+ Fresno is 24-6 when leading at the half under Tedford and 2-8 when not

+ USC is 1st nationally with 53.5 points per game

+ Fresno is 2-8 under Tedford scoring less than 20 pts and 25-5 when scoring more than 20

What happens?

A pair of elite passers make for what could be a back-and-forth air show: Williams has 590 yards with 6 TDs and no picks, and Haener has 737 yards in 2 games with 3 scores and no turnovers.

Both are complemented by able ball carriers in the backfield: Haener, by Jordan Mims, who has 4 TDs on 36 touches for almost 200 yards; and Williams by Travis Dye, who gets 6.6 ypc on average, and Austin Jones, who has 2 scores on 12 carries and is over 7 yards per rush.

Haener is going to give the Trojans' back seven some problems all night. One of the nation's most efficient passers per play and per game, he can get into scoring position and once there, Fresno scores 83% of the time in the red zone.

It'll be closer than USC wants, but its skill pieces are a grade better than what Haener is dealing to, and its defense is slowing building an identity.

College Football HQ Prediction: USC 44, Fresno State 37

College football rankings

According to AP Top 25 poll

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