Shifting college landscape make Trinidad Chambliss the latest in trend of draft unknowns

This period covering the NFL draft is always blurry. Many players we expect to declare are going to return to school. But these days, as highlighted by Trinidad Chambliss’ case, it’s even more confusing. Chambliss’ draft stock has shot upwards, but he may return to school regardless. Ole Miss has submitted a waiver to the NCAA for Chambliss to return. This waiver could generate an extra year of college eligibility for Chambliss due to his past injuries.

Though this extra year has not yet been granted, it puts discussions around Chambliss’ draft stock in a weird spot. The way he’s performed may be enough to become a Day 2 selection. If he plays this well for another year, he could be drafted even higher. However, he’s an undersized prospect, and we’ve seen other players return and lose the draft stock they’ve built.

Drew Allar returned to school in 2025 after a solid 2024 season. He did not perform well enough to uphold the hype around his capabilities. Chambliss is amongst many players making this calculation right now. So what has changed in recent years to cause this new paradox of unknowns?

Recruiting Calendar

Currently we’re in a “contact period” for college recruiting until National Signing Day. There is an incentive for college teams to get ahead on recruiting and sign their preferred high school recruits early in the morning on National Signing Day. Now, the transfer portal has been completely linked within this process. Given the lack of rules surrounding the recruiting process in modern college football, there really isn’t an incentive for upperclassmen to declare for the NFL draft.

College Football "Contact Period"

KJ Bolden tackles Ole Miss QB Trinidad Chambliss during the 2026 College Football Playoff. Amber Searls-Imagn Images | Amber Searls-Imagn Images

Draft Prep vs Transferring Incentives

In past seasons there’s been an incentive for prospective NFL players to declare early for a few reasons. Prospects need to hire an agent, prepare for workouts, and prepare the off-field portions of the process. They all need to have a general idea of where the NFL sees them in terms of the draft. Players with multiple years of eligibility remaining and a lack of NFL attention will return to school. Returning to school adds development time and builds out a case to be drafted.

With the expanded ability to transfer and get paid at the collegiate level, more players are considering returning to school. Players will hold off on declaring in order to generate prospective bids from interested college programs. In some cases, good college players who aren’t yet top NFL prospects could earn more money in college than as a NFL rookie.

Accolades

Jan 1, 2026; New Orleans, LA, USA; Mississippi Rebels quarterback Trinidad Chambliss (6) poses for a photo with the MVP trophy after the 2026 Sugar Bowl and quarterfinal game of the College Football Playoff against the Georgia Bulldogs at Caesars Superdome. Mandatory Credit: Amber Searls-Imagn Images | Amber Searls-Imagn Images

The final part of this is the opportunity to compete for a championship at the college level. It’s not impossible to think that a talented Ole Miss group could return to the College Football Playoff again. These high profile nationally broadcasted games serve as massive money makers for college quarterbacks whether it be from a professional football or NIL deal perspective.

The expansion of College Football as a product makes it more competitive with the NFL. These players are no longer thinking about development primarily. In a lot of ways, they are already in the market for their talents. Chambliss is just the latest to realize this.