ESPN Predicts Historic College Football Program to Win the ACC Championship

Miami came within one minute of a national championship in January. Now the Hurricanes enter 2026 with the look of a program ready to finish the job.

ESPN's Bill Connelly released his ACC preview this week and stopped just short of handing Miami the conference title outright. The numbers, though, make his stance pretty clear.

The Hurricanes are projected eighth nationally in SP+, with an average win total of 9.8 and a 99.9% chance of reaching six wins. Nobody else in the ACC comes particularly close.

Miami as the ACC favorite

Connelly projects Miami for 7.5 average conference wins, a figure that sits well ahead of second-place SMU at 6.0.

The Hurricanes also avoid two of the league's other projected top-30 teams (Louisville and SMU) on their schedule, a meaningful advantage in what figures to be a chaotic conference race.

Miami Hurricanes head coach Mario Cristobal reacts after a play against the Indiana Hoosiers during the first half of the College Football Playoff National Championship game at Hard Rock Stadium. | Kirby Lee-Imagn Images

In a league where more than half the teams can make a reasonable case for contention and after last year's title being so up for grabs, Miami's combination of talent and favorable draw gives them the clearest runway to Charlotte.

Connelly believes it will take "another couple of considerable upsets" for the Hurricanes to fall short of a title game bid. That's about as close to a prediction as it gets without just saying it.

Case for the Hurricanes to take the ACC in 2026

Quarterback Darian Mensah arrives from Duke after throwing for 3,973 yards and 34 touchdowns against just six interceptions last season. He joins Malachi Toney, who produced 1,324 yards from scrimmage and 11 touchdowns as a true freshman and also doubles as one of the nation's best punt returners.

Transfer receiver Cooper Barkate brings a 2.3 yards-per-route average from his ACC title run at Duke, and the running back group led by Mark Fletcher Jr., who ranks at No. 1 in my top returning running backs in college football, is one of the deepest in the conference.

Former Duke Blue Devils wide receiver Cooper Barkate (18) celebrates a touchdown. | Zachary Taft-Imagn Images

Cristobal has been direct about what this offense can do with Mensah under center. "He's accurate, he's got an unbelievable sense, and his pocket awareness is off the charts," Cristobal said.

"His off-script stuff and his on-schedule stuff [are] elite. He's a game changer, and I think the guys behind him are going to be groomed and turned into game changers as well. With Malachi Toney leading the charge, we feel pretty confident we're going to continue to get better."

The Hurricanes open their 2026 season Friday, Sept. 4 at Stanford at 9:00 p.m. ET.

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