Historic college football program named College Football Playoff ‘lock’ next season

Notre Dame head coach Marcus Freeman takes the field with his players before a NCAA football game against Syracuse at Notre Dame Stadium in South Bend. | MICHAEL CLUBB/SOUTH BEND TRIBUNE / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

The expanded 12-team College Football Playoff field for the 2025 season featured a healthy mix of SEC and Big Ten powers, along with several surprise entrants that produced breakout campaigns, including No. 4 Texas Tech, No. 6 Ole Miss, No. 11 Tulane, and No. 12 James Madison.

The bracket played out across December and January, culminating with No. 1 Indiana defeating No. 10 Miami, 27–21, in the national championship game on Jan. 19, 2026. The victory capped the most historic season in the Hoosiers' program history, powered by elite, Heisman-winning quarterback Fernando Mendoza.

Despite the excitement of the expanded playoff, one storyline dominated the headlines when Selection Sunday arrived on Dec. 7, 2025: Notre Dame was left out of the field entirely.

The Fighting Irish finished the regular season 10–2, closing the year on a 10-game winning streak, but were cut from the 12-team bracket when Miami claimed the final at-large spot.

The decision sparked widespread debate across the sport, with many labeling Notre Dame’s exclusion one of the season’s most notable snubs. Committee leadership cited the Irish’s Week 1 head-to-head loss to Miami as a decisive tiebreaker, and Notre Dame later declined an invitation to a non-CFP bowl game.

While the omission lingered as a frustrating ending to Marcus Freeman’s 2025 campaign, On3 analyst J.D. PicKell believes Notre Dame is positioned for a strong rebound in 2026, going as far as labeling the Irish a “playoff lock.”

Things I'm comfortable saying about the 2026 CFB season in February....

- Notre Dame is a playoff lock
- The SEC goes through Georgia until it doesn't
- It's playoff or bust for USC
- The Arch Manning hype/hate from last year is all now fair

— J.D. PicKell (@jdpickell) February 3, 2026

Notre Dame closed a highly rated 2026 recruiting cycle and added a number of impactful transfers through the portal; according to 247Sports, the Irish rank No. 5 nationally in high school recruiting and No. 11 in transfer portal additions.

The recruiting class features 30 total commits, highlighted by five-star edge rusher Rodney Dunham, the No. 2 EDGE prospect in the cycle, and five-star tight end Ian Premer, the nation’s top-ranked player at his position, along with 20 four-star signees.

The portal haul, meanwhile, includes multiple proven Power Five contributors: defensive linemen Tionne Gray (Oregon) and Francis Brewu (Pittsburgh), edge rusher Keon Keeley (Alabama), former five-star wide receiver Quincy Porter (Ohio State), and defensive backs Jayden Sanders (Michigan) and DJ McKinney (Colorado).

Notre Dame Fighting Irish head coach Marcus Freeman (middle) leads the team onto the field to play the Pittsburgh Panthers | Charles LeClaire-Imagn Images

Notre Dame’s 2026 regular-season slate features several marquee matchups, including the Shamrock Series against Wisconsin at Lambeau Field, home tests versus Michigan State and Miami, road trips to Purdue, North Carolina, and BYU, and a season finale at Syracuse.

When combined with immediate roster upgrades at key positions (DL, EDGE, WR, CB), the structure of the schedule directly reinforces PicKell’s argument that Notre Dame is well-positioned to secure a College Football Playoff berth in 2026.

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