Kirk Herbstreit Surprised by Historic College Football Powerhouse’s CFP Ranking

The ESPN analyst says one game against the nation’s top-ranked team will decide whether the one-loss independent climbs into the top six or falls outside the field.

Kirk Herbstreit on the ESPN College GameDay set during the 2-2026 quarterfinal game of the College Football Playoff | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Kirk Herbstreit called Notre Dame’s No. 11 spot in the first College Football Playoff rankings the biggest surprise of the release, and the ESPN analyst says Saturday’s game against top-ranked Miami will decide where the Irish land.

“The one thing, I guess, if there was a surprise, it would probably be that Notre Dame is sitting down there at 11,” Herbstreit said Tuesday night on “Nonstop,” the show he co-hosts with ESPN analyst Joey Galloway. “I was a little bit surprised by that.”

Herbstreit on Notre Dame’s résumé

Notre Dame Fighting Irish head coach Marcus Freeman looks on during the first half against the Brigham Young Cougars | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

The 7-1 Irish entered the release at No. 4 in the AP poll, but the committee slotted them behind three two-loss teams in Alabama, Texas and Ole Miss. Committee chair Hunter Yurachek said Notre Dame doesn’t have “that signature win right now” and named a neutral-site victory over Wisconsin as its best result.

“If you play worst-case scenario, if Notre Dame were to somehow lose this game, you look at their résumé and, let’s face it, they’ve not been able to beat a lot of teams right now,” Herbstreit said.

Still, the Ohio State alum didn’t call the placement unfair.

“I don’t necessarily have a huge problem with where Notre Dame is,” Herbstreit said. “Based on who they’ve played, who they’ve beaten and who they lost to against their one ranked opponent, it’s not necessarily a shock that they are where they are.”

What does a Miami win mean?

Miami (FL) Hurricanes quarterback Darian Mensah (10) leaves the field after the game at Kenan Stadium | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

“If they win this game, then I think there’s really no discussion,” Herbstreit said. “I think they’ll shoot up the rankings, probably up into the top six or seven, depending on what happens this weekend with some of the other big games.”

Notre Dame also earns an automatic bid if it finishes in the committee’s top 12. That’s a change from last season, when the Irish finished No. 11 and missed the field after Miami passed them in the final rankings. Boston College and SMU visit South Bend after Saturday, and the regular season ends at Syracuse.

“The cool thing is Notre Dame doesn’t need any help,” Herbstreit said. “The ball’s in their court.”

Notre Dame’s case after a loss

Notre Dame Fighting Irish running back Nolan James Jr. (2) runs the ball against Brigham Young Cougars safety Raider Damuni (3) | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

A loss would leave the Irish without a win over a ranked team, and SMU’s résumé took a hit when it lost to Syracuse last weekend.

“If they lose, they’re not done,” Herbstreit said. “I wouldn’t sit here and say they’re done, but I would say they’re on the outside looking in. You’re sitting there at 10-2 and you’re left with, ‘Well, hey, we beat SMU, we beat North Carolina.’ I just don’t know what you really have as an argument.”

Greg McElroy argued earlier this week that one game will decide Notre Dame’s playoff fate. Miami (8-0) and Notre Dame kick off at 7:30 p.m. ET Saturday in South Bend on NBC and Peacock.