Paul Finebaum Reveals If the SEC Can Win a National Championship in 2026

The Big Ten conference has put a stranglehold on the college football world, winning the last three national championships with three different teams.

That level of dominance has shifted the national conversation, as the Big Ten is no longer chasing the SEC but setting the standard.

The league was once ruled by the SEC, which dominated from 2006 to 2022, winning 13 national championships, including seven in a row. Much of that success was driven by former Alabama head coach Nick Saban, whose influence shaped the sport for nearly two decades.

However, Saban is gone, and the SEC is looking for a new team and coach to take over the sport. Many thought it was going to be the Georgia Bulldogs and Kirby Smart, who won two national championships in 2021 and 2022.

However, they haven't won a playoff game since then, despite winning two SEC championships.

Texas Longhorns head coach Steve Sarkisian pauses during the second half. | Scott Wachter-Imagn Images

That inconsistency at the very top is something the SEC rarely dealt with during its peak years. Another team is the Texas Longhorns. After making two straight College Football Playoff semifinals in 2023 and 2024, the vibes were high heading into 2025.

So much so that Texas received its first preseason AP No. 1 ranking in program history as Arch Manning took over. However, the Longhorns would start 3-2 and ultimately finish 9-3, missing the playoffs.

Texas represented the SEC’s next wave of dominance, but last season showed that potential doesn’t always translate into sustained success.

The Alabama Crimson Tide is one of the premier programs in the SEC. However, since Kalen DeBoer replaced Saban, they haven't been much of a contender for a national championship. They missed the playoffs in 2024, but did return in 2025 before losing 38-3 to the Indiana Hoosiers in the quarterfinals.

For a program that once set the standard, that kind of result highlights how much the gap has closed nationally.

The lack of a dominant team has ESPN's Paul Finebaum worried about the chances of the SEC heading into 2026. In fact, on "The Paul Finebaum Show," he said he doesn't think any team in the conference will win the national championship this year.

"I think as of the moment, I'm struggling to find the team that will win it," Finebaum said. "I may change my mind, but today I would not pick an SEC team to win."

That statement would have been unthinkable just a few years ago, but it reflects the uncertainty surrounding the conference right now. It's hard to disagree with that sentiment due to the lack of dominance in the conference that fans had grown accustomed to seeing. However, the argument against that is that there might not be a dominant team in the country this season.

The Hoosiers have to replace Heisman Trophy winner Fernando Mendoza, as well as key defensive pieces like D'Angelo Ponds. Ohio State also has to replace key contributors like Caleb Downs.

That uncertainty across the sport could open the door for a conference like the SEC, even without a clear powerhouse.

Georgia, Texas, Oklahoma and Texas A&M all return their quarterbacks after either making the College Football Playoff or being the first team out last season. So, there is a chance for an SEC team to get it done, but it just won't feel as easy as it once did.

Ultimately, the SEC may no longer dominate the sport, but it still has enough depth and talent to re-enter the national title conversation. The difference now is that it has to prove it on the field rather than relying on reputation.