Six Week 4 games that could impact the CFP race

While another week of college football sees many of the sport's toughest programs still working on lightweight non-conference foes, there are still some significant matchups in Week 4. Here's a look at six big games that could impact the College Football Playoff race.

No. 22 Auburn vs. No. 11 Oklahoma

As a pair of undefeated teams that have flexed a bit of muscle, there's some CFP meat on the bone with this matchup. Oklahoma is credited by ESPN's FPI with a 43.5% chance of reaching the Playoff. Auburn hasn't been quite as explosive, but the Tigers have a 24.5% shot. Obviously, a win will provide a boost and would likely lift Oklahoma into the projected field.

Tulane vs. No. 13 Ole Miss

The Rebels get plenty of love from FPI with a 60.5% shot at the playoff, second best in the SEC. That doesn't easily square with two consecutive one-score wins over Kentucky and Arkansas, who aren't exactly CFP-bound foes. Meanwhile, Tulane remains one of the top competitors for the G5 bid, second only to Memphis at this point. While neither conference race is impacted, it still carries some beauty-contest points for potential at-large CFP bids.

No. 21 Michigan vs. Nebraska

Both of these teams are on the periphery of the CFP picture. But Michigan already has one loss, and would struggle to make a CFP case with a second loss in Septemeber. Nebraska is 3-0, but the Huskers have had a recent tendency to fade after promising starts. Right now, FPI has Nebraska at a 25.6% CFP shot and Michigan at 20.9%. It's hard to imagine either of them having a viable case with a loss in this game.

No. 9 Illinois vs. No. 19 Indiana

It's another potential elimination map of CFP long-shots. Both are 3-0, and despite the rankings, Indiana get the better odds from ESPN, with a 29.6% CFP shot against 19.9% for Illinois. The big-picture issue for either team is that the Big Ten top four of Ohio State, Oregon, Penn State, and USC could be tough to reach. But if anybody's going to work past the Trojans, it's probably whichever team wins this game.

No. 17 Texas Tech vs. No. 18 Utah

The Big 12 is probably a one-bid league, so there's a little more emphasis in winning the conference crown than in the SEC, Big Ten, or even ACC. Utah is the current FPI favorite, with a 26.3% playoff shot, while Texas Tech is fourth at 16.2%. Getting to 4-0 is a key start for the winner here.

Arkansas at Memphis

The Razorbacks likely don't factor into the CFP race, but Memphis, as noted above, is currently the top G5 contender. Of course, the problem is that whether it's Memphis or Tulane that wins the G5, there's probably no room for another team from the conference. But Memphis is the team with the best shot to coordinate an at-large bid.