Six Week 9 college football games that could impact the College Football Playoff

Oklahoma QB John Mateer has a big battle with Ole Miss in Week 9 in a game with CFP significance.
Oklahoma QB John Mateer has a big battle with Ole Miss in Week 9 in a game with CFP significance. | Jeff Blake-Imagn Images

The closer the College Football Playoff gets, the bigger the games. While a few lucky teams have all but punched their tickets, there's still plenty up for grabs, particularly in the SEC. Here's a rundown on six games to watch in Week 9 because they'll be pivotal to the CFP ultimate decision-making process.

No. 8 Ole Miss at No. 13 Oklahoma

A pair of one-loss SEC teams that are both hanging out in the fringe of the CFP picture. With Alabama, A&M, and Georgia nearly set, there's then a group of five teams that ESPN's FPI places between a 32% and a 48.5% shot at the CFP. Ole Miss and Oklahoma are the top two in that group, so the steps to being a fourth SEC team at the CFP party starts with a win in this game.

No. 18 South Florida at Memphis

The AAC is pretty much certain to nab the final spot in the CFP. With a pair of one-loss teams battling, the visiting USF Bulls are a slight road favorite to keep their perfect league mark intact. But a Memphis upset would leave Navy and Tulane unbeaten and atop the league. There's plenty left to go down, but a second league loss would probably knock Memphis out of the picture, while a Memphis win brings some chaos.

No. 15 Missouri at No. 10 Vanderbilt

The other side of the Ole Miss/Oklahoma game is this SEC battle. Mizzou and Vandy are also part of the one-loss clump of the SEC. ESPN's FPI ranks these two lowest of the group, with the Vandy at a 33.4% CFP shot and Mizzou at 32%. But with a fourth and even potentially a fifth CFP spot for the SEC, this is a big game for both teams.

No. 11 BYU at Iowa State

BYU and Cincinnati are atop the Big 12 standings without a loss, but the Cougars are actually a 2.5 point underdog at the two-loss Cyclones. BYU is sitting at a 51% CFP shot after Texas Tech's loss to Arizona State, but that's contingent in part of winning as an underdog on the road in this game.

No. 3 Texas A&M at No. 20 LSU

The Aggies are in safe shape and could withstand a loss (they're a very mild road favorite). But two-loss LSU is on the verge of out of the CFP picture and another loss would push them there. Essentially, this game works out very similar to the BYU/Iowa State game, with the exception being that A&M is a slight favorite.

No. 22 Texas at Mississippi State

5-2 Texas seems like it's been written off, but the Longhorns still have a 39.1% shot at the Playoff. That said, this is a dangerous Mississippi State team and Texas is only about a touchdown favorite on the road. State is likely playing for bowl eligibility, but Texas is playing to keep that CFP door open.


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Joe Cox
JOE COX

Joe is a journalist and writer who covers college and professional sports. He has written or co-written over a dozen sports books, including several regional best sellers. His last book, A Fine Team Man, is about Jackie Robinson and the lives he changed. Joe has been a guest on MLB Network, the Paul Finebaum show and numerous other television and radio shows. He has been inside MLB dugouts, covered bowl games and conference tournaments with Saturday Down South and still loves telling the stories of sports past and present.