Two College Football Giants Snubbed in 2026 Playoff Predictions

The 12-team College Football Playoff format has opened the door for more programs to chase a national championship, but not every blue blood is being penciled into the bracket.

Bleacher Report's David Kenyon released his "buying or selling" breakdown of the top 2026 contenders on Tuesday, and a pair of brand-name programs landed in the "sell" column right out of the gate.

Both USC and Michigan return their starting quarterback, key veterans and impact transfers heading into the fall, yet brutal conference slates have national analysts cooling on their playoff chances before fall camp even opens.

USC roster questions and brutal Big Ten draw

Kenyon's hesitation with USC starts with the schedule. The Trojans face Indiana, Ohio State, Oregon, Penn State and Washington, a five-game gauntlet that would test any roster in the country.

"If you're seeing 10-2 or better for either one, good luck," Kenyon wrote about USC and Michigan.

Lincoln Riley returns quarterback Jayden Maiava, who finished his first full season as the starter with 3,711 passing yards, 24 touchdowns and 10 interceptions while leading the FBS in QBR.

The Trojans also welcome the nation's No. 1 recruiting class and 17 returning starters, the most in the Big Ten.

USC Trojans defensive coordinator Gary Patterson — Former TCU Horned Frogs head coach Gary Patterson is now the defensive coordinator with the USC Trojans. | Kevin Jairaj-Imagn Images

That said, the offseason wasn't clean. Five-star quarterback Husan Longstreet transferred to LSU, defensive tackle Devan Thompkins left for Alabama, and the program lost Biletnikoff winner Makai Lemon to the NFL Draft.

New defensive coordinator Gary Patterson takes over a unit that struggled to pressure quarterbacks late in 2025, a problem that contributed to USC's 9-4 finish.

My regular season projection has USC going 8-4, with losses at Penn State, at Indiana, at home to Oregon and at home to Ohio State.

Michigan rebuild under Kyle Whittingham

Kyle Whittingham inherits a Wolverines program in the middle of its biggest transition in a generation. The former Utah coach was hired Dec. 26 following the dismissal of Sherrone Moore and quickly overhauled the staff, parting ways with six assistants including Wink Martindale, Ron Bellamy and Grant Newsome.

Sophomore quarterback Bryce Underwood headlines the returning talent after completing 60.3 percent of his throws with 11 touchdowns and nine interceptions as a true freshman.

"I'm not going to say that they were a bunch of undisciplined guys, but our structure is different than what they were used to before," Whittingham said this spring.

Michigan offensive coordinator Jason Beck followed head coach Kyle Whittingham to the Wolverines from Utah after a series of stops across college football, including BYU, Virginia, Syracuse and New Mexico. | Junfu Han / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

That cultural reset arrives alongside a punishing schedule. Michigan draws Oklahoma in Week 2, then hosts Penn State and defending national champion Indiana in back-to-back weeks before road trips to Oregon and Ohio State close the regular season.

Add new coordinator Jason Beck installing a fresh offense and Justice Haynes transferring to Georgia Tech, and the margin for error in Ann Arbor is razor thin.

My projection has Michigan at 8-4, with losses at home to Oklahoma and Indiana, plus losses on the road to Oregon and Ohio State. The Wolverines are slotted at No. 15 in my post-spring way-too-early college football top 25 rankings.

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