Greg McElroy Picks UCLA vs. Oregon Winner With Dante Moore's Status Unclear

UCLA enters Autzen Stadium 4-0 under first-year coach Bob Chesney, while Oregon waits on Wednesday's injury report to learn whether Dante Moore can start.

SEC Network personality Greg McElroy visits Radio Row during SEC Media Days | USA TODAY Sports

ESPN analyst Greg McElroy picked Oregon to beat unbeaten No. 21 UCLA on Saturday at Autzen Stadium, betting that the Ducks' run defense can contain first-year coach Bob Chesney's ground game whether Dante Moore or Dylan Raiola starts at quarterback.

McElroy took the Ducks 31-21 on his Always College Football podcast and built the pick around a red-zone trend for Oregon coach Dan Lanning. "Dan Lanning is 39-1 in his career when Oregon gets more red-zone trips than the opponent," McElroy said.

Who starts at quarterback for Oregon?

Oregon quarterback Dylan Raiola throws a pass as the Oregon Ducks face the USC Trojans | USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect

Moore suffered a concussion in Oregon's 41-27 win at USC on Sept. 26, and he returned to practice Monday in a helmet and shoulder pads. Still, Lanning hasn't cleared the former UCLA quarterback, and the Big Ten's first injury report for the game is due Wednesday night.

Raiola replaced Moore at the Coliseum and went 19 of 25 for 289 yards and two touchdowns. However, McElroy pointed to the Nebraska transfer's history against ranked teams.

"If you look back at his time at Nebraska, he was 0-5 against ranked football teams," McElroy said. "Well, UCLA is ranked."

A Raiola start would also come one week before Oregon faces Nebraska.

Wayne Knight vs. Oregon run defense

UCLA running back Wayne Knight (3) looks on after scoring a touchdown during the second half against San Diego State | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

UCLA is 4-0 and 2-0 in the Big Ten after a 54-3 win at Maryland on Sept. 26. Chesney became the first UCLA coach since Red Sanders in 1949 to open his tenure 4-0.

Running back Wayne Knight, who followed Chesney from James Madison, has 445 yards and nine touchdowns on 49 carries against FBS opponents. McElroy noted the Bruins average 7 yards per carry, the best mark in the country. But Oregon has allowed just nine runs of 10 or more yards.

The Bruins' passing game is the concern. Quarterback Nico Iamaleava has thrown four touchdown passes, which McElroy said ranks 118th nationally, and Chesney's teams struggle when they have to lean on the pass.

"Bob Chesney is 20-1 as an FBS head coach when his team runs fewer than 30 pass plays," McElroy said. "He is 1-3 when they have to throw it 40 or more times."

Why did McElroy pick Oregon?

Oregon Ducks head coach Dan Lanning runs out to the field with players before a game against the Portland State Vikings | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

McElroy expects Oregon to load up against the run and force Iamaleava to beat a defense that holds opponents to a 54% completion rate.

"Oregon will completely sell out against the run," McElroy said.

"So once the Bruins are forced to throw the ball, that's when the matchup starts to tilt pretty hard in the direction of the Ducks," McElroy added.

UCLA's best upset path runs through turnovers. The Bruins are plus-8 in turnover margin, tied for third nationally, while Oregon has given the ball away twice all season. UCLA also averages 10 penalties per game, which McElroy said ranks 137th out of 138 teams, and that number becomes harder to overcome in a road environment like Autzen.

History favors the Ducks, too. Oregon has won the last five meetings, and McElroy noted UCLA's last win in Eugene came in 2004, when Lanning was a freshman linebacker at William Jewell.

McElroy picked against Oregon in Week 4, taking USC 34-31 before the Ducks won by 14 at the Coliseum. UCLA and Oregon kick off at 3:30 p.m. ET on CBS.