LSU vs. Ole Miss prediction: Who wins, and why?

Here’s what you need to know as No. 4 LSU hits the road against No. 13 Ole Miss in college football’s Week 5 action on Saturday, with our prediction for the game.

LSU was advertised as one of college football’s most potent and explosive offenses, but the unit has failed to really deliver on that promise, aside from last week’s big win over Southeastern Louisiana, and this week could prove to be an obstacle to that project.

Although the Tigers already own a statement road win after beating then-No. 4 Clemson in the season opener, that win looks less impressive given their opponent’s struggles since then, and the Rebels are playing confident football right now.

And much of it is because of Division II transfer quarterback Trinidad Chambliss, who has admirably stepped up in the wake of starter Austin Simmons’ ankle injury.

What should you watch out for as the Rebels host the Tigers this weekend?

Here’s what you need to know as LSU and Ole Miss meet in this SEC rivalry classic, with our updated On SI prediction for the game.

LSU vs. Ole Miss prediction: What to watch for

LSU vs. Ole Miss football game prediction 2025 — Scott Kinser-Imagn Images

1. On the ground

Part of LSU’s relative struggles on offense through three games has been the subpar performance of its rushing attack to help balance things out.

That problem was compounded when lead back Caden Durham left last week’s game with an ankle injury, and the current belief is that he will not be available for the Ole Miss matchup.

The quality of this run game, with or without Durham, largely depends on the ability of LSU’s offensive line, one of the country’s best a year ago before undergoing considerable turnover this season, to consistently open up enough rushing lanes for their backs to exploit.

The LSU ground game could theoretically prove a decisive advantage against an Ole Miss defense that is susceptible on the interior and has struggled somewhat against the run, ranking 14th worst nationally by allowing 191 yards per game on average from opposing backs.

2. The new QB

It was supposed to be the Austin Simmons show for Ole Miss after the departure of Jaxson Dart, but an ankle injury has kept the quarterback off the field for two-plus games, paving the way for Trinidad Chambliss to prove himself.

That he has, emerging as one of college football’s most dangerous dual threat quarterbacks, throwing for 660 yards and 3 touchdowns while rushing for 174 more yards and 2 additional scores, leading an offense that averages 43 points per game with him at the helm as the starter.

Chambliss is not only a threat on designed run calls, but has the mobility to move the pocket and extend plays while a group of deep and talented Ole Miss receivers create room downfield.

He’ll be tested against the best defense he’s faced thus far, an LSU front seven alignment that presents speed and power along the line and can generate a ton of pressure and throw Chambliss off his game. Arkansas and Kentucky are one thing, this LSU unit is another.

3. Lacy vs. LSU’s front

Ole Miss doesn’t want Chambliss to do everything for this offense, and given the variety of ways LSU can wreck you up front, it’s not a good game plan anyway.

That’s where Kewan Lacy comes in. The transfer tailback leads an attack that averages almost 219 yards per game on the ground and picks up 5.02 yards per carry while sitting fourth nationally with 13 rushing touchdowns.

LSU is one of college football’s most accomplished rush defenses through four games, ranking 10th in the country by surrendering just 64 yards per game, a single touchdown, and only 2.35 yards per touch from opposing backs.

Who is favored?

The bookies are giving the home team a slight edge in this SEC rivalry clash.

Ole Miss is a 1.5 point favorite against LSU, according to the updated game lines posted to FanDuel Sportsbook entering this weekend.

FanDuel lists the total at 56.6 points for the matchup.

And it set the moneyline odds for Ole Miss at -118 and for LSU at -102 to win outright.