LSU vs. South Carolina prediction: Who wins, and why?

SEC football returns to Death Valley under the lights as No. 11 LSU comes back from its idle week to take on struggling South Carolina on Saturday night. Here is what you should watch for in the game, with our updated On SI prediction for the matchup.

LSU took its first loss of the season a couple weeks ago in a road test against Ole Miss and wants to make a good impression in this game, looking ahead to matchups against three currently ranked SEC opponents, two of them on the road, and one at Alabama.

Sitting at 1-1 in conference play, that particular stretch could end up defining the Tigers’ season, either as one destined for the College Football Playoff, or one that leaves some troubling questions for the Brian Kelly era.

First things first: a date at home against the Gamecocks, who improved to 1-2 in SEC competition after a win against Kentucky, ending a two-game losing skid against Vanderbilt and Missouri, but still ranking among the nation’s worst in offensive output.

Like its counterpart, South Carolina also embarks on a challenging few weeks. In addition to this road test against the 11th-ranked Tigers, it plays four-straight games against current top 8-ranked opponents.

LSU vs. South Carolina prediction: What to watch

LSU vs. South Carolina football game prediction 2025 — Ken Ruinard/USA TODAY Network via Imagn Images

1. Contain the QB

South Carolina isn’t doing much on the ground this season, ranking a paltry 112th out of 136 FBS teams in rushing output with just 99 yards per game and a meager 2.9 yard per carry average, putting more pressure on the offense to exploit LaNorris Sellers’ mobility.

The Gamecocks’ quarterback scored twice on 10 carries against LSU a year ago before retiring with an injury. And while he’s averaging just 19 rushing yards per game this year, that doesn’t mean he can’t develop into a running threat at any time.

LSU’s front seven tacklers look like a more cohesive unit than they did a year ago, and need to ensure Sellers has no escape routes to the outside and that he doesn’t have enough pocket to extend plays with his legs to allow his receivers to create downfield.

2. Establish the run

LSU’s offense has not played up to its preseason hype, ranking just 12th among SEC teams in total production halfway through the year, and part of that sluggishness stems from its inability to consistently threaten defenses on the ground.

The rushing attack should go through Caden Durham, the tailback who scored 2 touchdowns and had nearly 100 yards in a win at South Carolina a year ago, but was unable to go last week against Ole Miss while rehabbing an ankle injury.

Durham is slated to return against the Gamecocks, who have played some decent run defense this season, limiting opposing backs to under 3.7 yards per carry, surrendered just 5 touchdowns, and allowing just 143 yards total each time out.

3. Third down battle

South Carolina needs to generate consistent stops and landmark defensive plays in order to keep its upset chances realistic in just a hostile setting, and a big part of that strategy will depend on its effort on third down.

That could be a close battle, as LSU’s third down conversion rate on offense, which sits at 42.4 percent (55th in FBS), is roughly equivalent to how the Gamecocks perform when defending the third down, allowing opponents to convert on 44.4 percent of chances (116th in FBS).

Ensuring they preserve that slim advantage on third down will be vital for the Gamecocks to stymie LSU’s offensive rhythm and keep it out of scoring position.

Who is favored?

The betting market is leaning more heavily on the Tigers to perform at home against the Gamecocks in primetime.

LSU is an 8.5 point favorite against South Carolina, according to the updated game lines posted to FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel lists the total at 44.5 points for the matchup.

And it set the moneyline odds for LSU at -340 and for South Carolina at +275 to win outright.

LSU vs. South Carolina prediction: Who wins?

Both these teams are up against it, but LSU faces more pressure as a preseason College Football Playoff contender suddenly in danger of falling under .500 in SEC play if things don’t go properly here.

Defense will likely carry the day on both sides of this matchup, as each side has the bodies to limit their respective opponents’ ability to generate explosive plays.

LSU will do what it does on offense: just enough to win the game, but leave questions as to why it wasn’t more. And on defense: set its gifted front seven against the SEC’s worst-performing overall offense to squeak out a double-digit win.

College Football HQ picks...

LSU wins 27-16
Covers the spread
And hits the under

How to watch South Carolina vs. LSU

When: Sat., Oct. 11
Where: LSU

Time: 7:45 p.m. Eastern
TV: SEC Network