Miami vs. Louisville prediction: Who wins, and why?

We haven’t seen Miami on the field for a while as it took two of the last three weeks off, but the No. 2 team in college football and current ACC title favorite returns to action on Friday night against insurgent conference challenger Louisville.

Miami has defeated three AP ranked opponents in a season for the first time in more than 20 years, and with key wins over Notre Dame, USF, and Florida State behind it, now looks forward to making the most of a winnable schedule the rest of the way.

And in the process avoid a re-run of last season, when the Hurricanes started 9-0 and a sure thing for the playoff, but lost three of their final four games, with two of those results coming against unranked competition.

Louisville had last weekend off, but returns on the tail-end of a loss against ranked Virginia the last time out. Despite Miller Moss throwing for over 300 yards with 3 touchdowns, the Cardinals also lost the turnover battle and allowed a late score.

That shouldn’t stop Louisville, now at 4-1 overall this season, from making some noise in the ACC championship conversation, and how it performs in particular in games like this will go a long way in proving it can do just that.

Miami vs. Louisville prediction: What to watch

Miami vs. Louisville football game prediction 2025 — Charles LeClaire-Imagn Images

1. Key Offensive Matchups

Miami ranks 29th nationally in scoring offense at 36.0 points per game and averages 404 total yards, led by quarterback Carson Beck, who has completed 73.2 percent of passes, the third-best in FBS this season.

Louisville’s offense is not too far behind, ranking 35th in scoring at 35.0 points per game with 428 yards per outing.

Both teams are highly efficient in the red zone, Miami converting at 94.4 percent and Louisville slightly higher at 94.7 percent.

The key difference lies in rushing production: Louisville averages 163.8 rushing yards per game (62nd nationally), while Miami lags at just 115 yards (112th), relying heavily on Beck’s passing accuracy and tempo pacing to sustain drives.

2. Defensive Strengths, Weaknesses

Miami’s defense ranks ninth nationally, allowing just 13.6 points per game, and sits top-20 against the run, giving up fewer than 90 yards per contest.

Louisville ranks 4th in the ACC in scoring defense at 21 points allowed per game, but has experienced breakdowns defending mid-range passing routes against efficient quarterbacks, a potential red flag against Beck’s completion-driven attack.

The Cardinals, however, limit opponents to just 58 percent completions, the 12th-best in the country, creating a likely strength-vs.-strength matchup through the air.

3. Key Team Trends

Turnover margin and discipline give a slight advantage to Louisville, which has lost just three turnovers all season (6th fewest in FBS) while Miami has lost eight (79th nationally).

Louisville is also better with penalties, committing 6.3 per game compared to Miami’s 8.5. However, Miami’s superior efficiency on third down (44.3%) and red-zone success balances this out, especially at home, where head coach Mario Cristobal is riding a 10-game winning streak.

Who is favored?

The betting markets predictably side more strongly with the Hurricanes at home against the Cardinals.

Miami is a 12.5 point favorite against Louisville, according to the updated game lines posted to FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel lists the total at 49.5 points for the matchup.

And it set the moneyline odds for Miami at -430 and for Louisville at +340 to win outright.