Michigan vs. USC prediction: Who wins, and why?

For the first time since 1957, we’ll see a regular season game between Michigan and USC at the Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum, and what happens in this matchup could go some way in determining what happens in the Big Ten standings down the road.

USC returns from its idle week following its first loss of the season, falling to 4-1 overall with a 2-1 mark in Big Ten play, and boasts college football’s third-ranked scoring offense by averaging more than 48 points per game with quarterback Jayden Maiava at the helm.

All of the Trojans’ losses in conference games since joining the Big Ten have been by one score, including a tough last-second defeat on the road against ranked Illinois two weekends ago when, once again, their defense failed to seal the deal when it counted.

Michigan improved to 2-0 in Big Ten competition after victories against Nebraska and Wisconsin and, while young quarterback and No. 1 overall recruit Bryce Underwood finds his bearings as a true freshman, the Wolverines are happy to let this ground game do the work, as Alabama transfer back Justice Haynes leads the nation’s 13th-ranked attack.

What happens here could end up directly impacting the shape of the Big Ten championship picture, and consequently the College Football Playoff race.

Especially after Penn State’s shocking loss last weekend against then-winless UCLA, potentially opening up some breathing room for a third team, after Ohio State and Oregon, to make its case as an insurgent Big Ten title hopeful, with Michigan and USC both clamoring for that attention.

Michigan vs. USC prediction: What to watch

USC vs. Michigan football game prediction 2025 — Dylan Widger-Imagn Images

1. On the ground

Pivotal to Michigan’s staying power has been its consistency running the football, and Haynes has helped raise the level of this phase of the offense, rushing for over 100 yards in every game, scoring 8 times, and averaging 130 yards each time out.

Jordan Marshall is a very capable option himself right behind, averaging over 5 yards per touch on 40 fewer carries with 3 scores. Underwood has 3 rushing touchdowns and is good for almost 7 yards when he takes off.

USC’s run defense has fared better this season than in years past in the Riley era, allowing just over 108 yards per game from opponents, holding them to only 3 total touchdowns and limiting their backs to a stingy 3.4 yards per attempt.

Michigan wants to shorten the game, keep the clock moving, and prevent the Trojans’ more downfield-oriented offense from building any momentum of its own and making this a shootout.

2. Battle on the lines

USC simply has to get more physical both in repelling Michigan’s pass rush and in generating enough pressure to rattle Underwood and contain this ground attack.

That didn’t happen last year in Michigan’s win at the Big House, as USC allowed 290 rushing yards to the Wolverines’ backs in that game. This time around, the Trojan front seven alignment ranks among the 10 best in FBS by generating 8 negative plays per game on average.

Offensively, the Trojans gave up four sacks and seemingly infinite quarterback pressures against Michigan’s front seven pursuers a year ago in Ann Arbor. In 2025, they have surrendered only 4 sacks total, but this will be the toughest defense they line up against by far.

3. Stretching the field

Makai Lemon and Ja’Kobi Lane are Jayden Maiava’s two most important targets, and it’s on them that Southern Cal’s offensive hopes depend.

Lemon is USC’s leading threat, covering 589 yards off 35 receptions while averaging nearly 17 yards per catch and scoring 5 of the team’s 12 touchdowns through the air.

Lane has 278 yards off 13 grabs, but is good for more than 21 yards per touch with 1 score, one of 7 players to have a touchdown from Maiava this season.

Michigan’s air defense is decent, but not incredible, allowing opponents to complete more than 65 percent of their throws for over 206 yards per game, but has allowed only 6 touchdowns.

It has already faced a downfield offense of some note, in the loss at Oklahoma a couple weeks ago, but played moderately well, allowing a single 100-yard receiver and one TD in the air. USC has more options running some creative patterns and excels at putting them in space.

Who is favored?

The betting markets favor the Trojans over the Wolverines in this Big Ten test at home, but by a very narrow margin.

USC is a 2.5 point favorite against Michigan, according to the latest game lines posted to FanDuel Sportsbook entering the weekend.

FanDuel lists the total at 56.5 points for the matchup.

And it set the moneyline odds for USC at -134 and for Michigan at +114 to win outright.

Michigan vs. USC prediction: Who wins?

Michigan presents a credible challenge to any defense it lines up against when running the ball, and it’s not just Justice Haynes who’s doing the damage, giving this team some variety to lean on while Underwood finds himself.

He’s done a pretty good job so far in limited action, averaging more than 200 yards per game, and USC’s defense, while improved, is still leaving chunks of the field open for those offenses that are capable of taking it.

Michigan State and Illinois scored a combined 65 points on this unit, which strongly suggests that the Wolverines will be able to at least get to 30 points here.

The line wants us to think the Trojans are a field goal better than the Wolverines at home, but until Lincoln Riley’s team can prove it can win a close Big Ten game, we’re not taking even that chance.

College Football HQ picks...

Michigan wins 34-31
In an upset
And hits the over

More: USC vs. Michigan score prediction by expert model

How to watch Michigan vs. USC

When: Sat., Oct. 11
Where: USC

Time: 7:30 p.m. ET | 4:30 p.m. PT
TV: NBC network