Ohio State vs. Notre Dame national title prediction: Who has the edge?

Everything is on the line and it all comes down to this, as Ohio State and Notre Dame are set to decide college football’s historic first-ever 12-team national championship.
Ohio State made history as the first College Football Playoff national champion in 2014, and is looking to make some more by winning the first-ever title in a 12-team field.
It was arguably the most dominant team during this year’s playoff run, beating three opponents by an average of 20 points leading into this matchup.
Notre Dame rebounded from a loss to Northern Illinois in September, winning 13 straight games to this point behind some of the country’s more-productive defense and a stout ground attack.
Winning this game would give the Fighting Irish their first national championship since 1988.
Let’s take a look at who has the edge everywhere on the field in the most important matchups when Ohio State and Notre Dame kick off college football’s national championship.
Ohio State vs. Notre Dame: Who has the edge?
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Quarterback
Will Howard (Ohio State): 292-402 (72.6%) for 3,779 yards, 9.4 avg, 33 TD, 10 INTs, 12 sacks
Riley Leonard (Notre Dame): 247-372 (66.4%) for 2,606 yards, 7.0 avg, 19 TD, 8 INT, 18 sacks
Between the two, Howard is definitely the more productive passer, amassing 919 yards and 6 touchdowns against just 2 interceptions during Ohio State’s postseason run.
Howard and OSU’s targets are going against a Notre Dame secondary that allows the lowest quarterback rating and completion percentage (50.7%) in the country.
Leonard leads a passing attack that ranks just 102nd among 134 FBS teams in production, but is by far the superior rusher on the field.
He had a season many tailbacks would envy, rushing for 886 yards and 16 touchdowns, but is going against an Ohio State run stop that is 3rd nationally, allowing 2.68 yards per carry.
Who has the edge? About even, as Howard is as much of a threat passing as Leonard is rushing and vice versa.
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Running back
Notre Dame: 542 rush, 3,162 yards, 5.8 yards per carry, 44 touchdowns
Ohio State: 493 rush, 2,448 yards, 5.0 yards per carry, 32 touchdowns
Notre Dame comes into the game ranked 14th nationally in total rushing output behind a trio of star backs in Jeremiyah Love, Jadarian Price, and quarterback Riley Leonard.
Love is the leader of the pack, accounting for 1,122 yards while posting more than 7 yards per carry and scoring 17 of the team’s 44 rushing touchdowns.
Leonard is second in rushing total, averaging 5.2 yards per touch and is second in TDs, while Price has 733 yards on 117 carries for a 6.3 yards per carry average and another 7 touchdowns.
Notre Dame is fourth in the country by averaging 5.83 yards per carry as a team and is third in FBS with 44 rushing touchdowns.
Ohio State is top 30 nationally in most rushing categories, led by a two-headed backfield with stars Quinshon Judkins and TreVeyon Henderson carrying the load.
Henderson leads OSU with 967 yards on the ground while averaging 7.3 yards per attempt and scoring 10 touchdowns.
Judkins is right behind with 960 yards with 5.2 yards per carry and leads the team with 12 touchdowns.
Both go against a Notre Dame run defense that is 41st nationally allowing 133 yards per game and just 14 combined touchdowns on the ground.
Who has the edge? Notre Dame, which presents a more consistent threat on the ground, even if it relies more on that dimension of its game than Ohio State does.
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Wide receiver
Ohio State: 308 rec, 3,977 yards, 12.9 avg, 35 touchdowns
Notre Dame: 274 rec, 2,915 yards, 10.6 avg, 22 touchdowns
Ohio State freshman wide receiver Jeremiah Smith has been a revelation, covering 290 yards and scoring 4 touchdowns in the team’s first two playoff games this year.
And while Texas did a much better job of containing him in the semifinal, holding Smith to 3 yards, that tactic allowed the Buckeyes’ other elite skill weapons to roam freely.
Emeka Egbuka is second on the team with 10 touchdowns, behind Smith’s 14 TD grabs, while finishing with 947 yards and Carnell Tate has 698 yards and 4 touchdown catches.
Notre Dame may not be as productive as Ohio State in gaining yards throwing the ball, but it is efficient, averaging more than 7 yards per play and throwing just 8 interceptions on the year.
Jaden Greathouse leads the Irish with 464 yards receiving, which would be good for fourth among Buckeyes receivers, and has 2 touchdowns.
Beaux Collins and tight end Mitchell Evans lead Notre Dame with 3 touchdown catches each, while Jeremiyah Love has caught two, as have three other receivers.
Who has the edge? Ohio State, which boasts arguably the greatest skill rotation in college football.
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Offensive line
Notre Dame: 23 sacks allowed (57th), 1.53 sacks allowed per game (44th), 69 tackles for loss allowed (64th), 4.60 TFLs allowed per game (33rd)
Ohio State: 14 sacks allowed (13th), 0.93 sacks allowed per game (10th), 55 tackles for loss allowed (16th), 3.67 TFLs allowed per game (6th)
Despite slogging through a ton of injuries, Notre Dame still fielded one of the most efficient protection units in college football this year.
But the line will go without left tackle Anthonie Knapp, who left the semifinal game with a high ankle sprain that will keep Leonard’s blind side blocker off the field.
Ohio State lost both its center and left tackle to season-ending injuries, but still emerged slightly better at keeping its quarterback upright, especially in the postseason.
Who has the edge? Ohio State, which looked tight in its protection against three of the country’s best defensive fronts during the playoff.
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Defensive line/linebackers
Ohio State: 51 sacks (3rd), 3.40 sacks per game (3rd), 106 tackles for loss (7th), 7.07 tackles for loss per game (21th)
Notre Dame: 38 sacks (17th), 2.53 sacks per game (37th), 82 tackles for loss (37th), 5.47 tackles for loss per game (71st)
The matchup of the game could prove to be Ohio State’s edge rushers against Notre Dame’s makeshift blind side protection with Knapp out of the picture.
That opening gives a ton of leeway for Jack Sawyer and J.T. Tuimoloau, two of college football’s premier pressure artists, to shrink the Irish pocket and disrupt their offensive momentum.
Moreover, Notre Dame won’t have defensive lineman Rylie Mills, who suffered a season-ending injury in the first round game against Indiana.
Who has the edge? Ohio State, which is not only healthier, but fields more game-changing talent in the front seven.
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Secondary
Ohio State: 161.1 pass yards allowed per game (1st), 110.84 rating (6th), 8 TDs allowed (1st), 10 interceptions (70th), 5.9 yards per pass allowed (6th), 59.8 percent completion allowed (54th)
Notre Dame: 165.3 pass yards allowed per game (2nd), 99.5 rating (1st), 12 TDs allowed (6th), 19 interceptions (5th), 5.8 yards per pass allowed (2nd), 50.7 percent completion allowed (1st)
Notre Dame was able to maintain that elite pass defense production even after losing star cornerback Benjamin Morrison to a season-ending injury back in October.
We’ll see if the Irish can keep it up against a rotation of Ohio State skill players who will represent the most talented group this defense has faced all year by far.
Who has the edge? About even, but Ohio State gets a slight nod, given its superior depth.
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Who has the overall edge?
Ohio State. The more productive quarterback, some of college football’s most lethal skill targets, and an aggressive pass rush amount to a decisive advantage for the Buckeyes, but the Irish have the ground game and the secondary to keep this close.
College Football HQ picks ...
- Ohio State wins 31-26
- Doesn’t cover the spread
- And hits the over
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