Ole Miss vs. Tulane score prediction by expert football model

What the analytics predict for Ole Miss vs. Tulane in this Week 4 college football game from an expert model that projects scores.

Ole Miss Rebels vs. Tulane Green Wave game score prediction 2025 | Petre Thomas-Imagn Images

The latest prediction for Ole Miss vs. Tulane in this Week 4 college football game from an expert model that projects scores in this notable non-conference matchup.

Ole Miss became the first team to start 2-0 in SEC play this season after wins over Arkansas and Kentucky, but takes a breather from its conference slate to take on a notable Group of Five challenger who has College Football Playoff ambitions.

Jake Retzlaff transferred in from BYU after winning 11 games last season, and the quarterback has benefited the offense so far, leading the Green Wave with 6 of their 8 rushing touchdowns while averaging 7.2 yards per carry.

Tulane already has two wins over Power Four competition, dispatching Northwestern in the season opener and taking out Duke in a 34-27 decision last time out.

Austin Simmons is poised to return at quarterback for Ole Miss this week after missing most of last week’s victory over Arkansas with a minor ankle injury, and Kewan Lacy leads a backfield that ranks top 35 nationally with 211 rushing yards per game.

What do the analytics suggest will happen as the Green Wave and Rebels square off in this non-conference matchup?

For that, let’s turn to the SP+ prediction model to get a preview of how Ole Miss and Tulane compare in this Week 4 college football game.

Ole Miss vs. Tulane score prediction

As you might expect, the models are still siding with the Rebels to stand firm at home against this Group of Five challenger.

SP+ predicts that Ole Miss will defeat Tulane outright in the game, and will do so by a projected score of 37 to 20, and to win the matchup by an expected 17.5 points.

The model gives the Rebels a strong 86 percent chance to avoid the upset at home.

SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”

How good is it this season? So far, the SP+ college football prediction model is 70-75 against the spread with a 48.3 win percentage.

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How to pick the game

Predictably, the sports books are favoring the Rebels over the Green Wave at home, and by a double-digit margin this weekend.

Ole Miss is a 12.5 point favorite against Tulane, according to the updated game lines posted to FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel lists the total at 61.5 points for the matchup.

And it set the moneyline odds for Ole Miss at -465 and for Tulane at +350 to win outright.

If you’re using this prediction to bet on the game, you should take...

• Ole Miss -12.5
• Rebels to win -465
• Bet under 61.5 points

Doing so would put you in the company of most bettors, who believe the Rebels will take care of the Green Wave this weekend, according to the spread consensus picks for the game.

Ole Miss is getting 57 percent of bets to win the game by at least 13 points and cover the generous point spread to avoid an upset.

The other 43 percent of wagers project Tulane will either upset the Rebels outright on the road, or will keep the final margin under 13 points in a defeat.

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Computer prediction

Most other analytical football models expect the Rebels will handle this Group of Five challenger at home on Saturday.

That includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to pick winners.

Ole Miss is a massive favorite over Tulane according to the index, coming out ahead in the majority 86.8 percent of the computer’s most recent simulations of the game.

That leaves the Green Wave as the presumptive winner in the remaining 13.2 percent of sims.

That sizable disparity between these teams was also reflected in the final projected margin as the computer calculated the eventual score of the contest.

After simulating the game 20,000 times, the computer projects that Ole Miss will be 13.8 points better than Tulane on the same field in both teams’ current composition.

How accurate was the College Football Power Index computer prediction model last Saturday?

Projecting the games a week ago, the Power Index models correctly predicted 73.1 percent of all games and hit 52.8 percent against the spread.

Predicting a total of 799 college football games a year ago, the Power Index computers were correct for 70.964 percent of their final picks, ranking eighth nationally out of 55 other football models.

Over the last decade, the Football Power Index has proven correct on 75 percent of FBS college football game predictions, including in 73 percent of matchups when it favored a team with at least 70 percent likelihood to win.

More: ESPN computer predicts Ole Miss vs. Tulane game winner

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