Oregon vs. Iowa prediction: Who wins, and why?

The start of the final stretch of the 2025 college football regular season finds reigning Big Ten champ Oregon heading across the country against a newly-ranked Iowa team that has designs on ruining the Ducks’ season and making a play for the selection committee themselves.

Iowa has a habit of trashing national championship hopefuls. Just ask Ohio State, who came out on the wrong end of a big loss at Kinnick Stadium back in 2017, and now the Hawkeyes would like to put on an encore performance in this matchup.

They nearly did it once this season, holding an Indiana team that leads college football with a 31 point average margin of victory to a last-minute five-point win a couple weeks ago.

Oregon vs. Iowa: What to watch for

Oregon vs. Iowa football game prediction 2025 — Oregon vs. Iowa prediction 2025 | Ben Lonergan/The Register-Guard / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

1. Controlling Explosive Plays

Both Iowa and Oregon rank among the nation’s best in preventing explosive plays, with Oregon leading the FBS and Iowa close behind.

Each defensive unit limits long gains, and whichever offense can break through with big plays could swing the game.

Iowa’s offense rarely creates explosive moments, while Oregon’s boasts a top young quarterback capable of stretching the field.

2. The weather

The game is forecast to be cold, windy, and rainy, which typically advantages Iowa’s physical, run-heavy style and the raucous home crowd at Kinnick Stadium.

Oregon has limited experience playing in less-obliging Midwestern conditions, and November games at Kinnick are legendary for upsets when favored visiting teams struggle to adapt.

3. QBs under Pressure

Oregon’s Dante Moore is highly talented but still relatively inexperienced in hostile environments like Kinnick, especially in adverse weather. Iowa’s Mark Gronowski is known for red zone efficiency and limiting mistakes.

The game could pivot on which quarterback handles pressure, avoids turnovers, and capitalizes on scoring opportunities in a low-possession, field position contest.

What the bookies think

The betting markets favor the Ducks by about a touchdown on the road against the Hawkeyes.

Oregon is a 6.5 point favorite against Iowa, according to the national consensus betting lines.

That consensus lists the total at 42.5 points for the matchup, and set the moneyline odds for Oregon at -240 and for Iowa at +198 to win outright.

Oregon vs. Iowa prediction: Who wins?

Oregon Ducks vs. Iowa Hawkeyes football game prediction 2025 — Oregon Ducks vs. Iowa Hawkeyes prediction 2025 | Jeffrey Becker-Imagn Images

Upsets have been the order of the day in college football this season, and the Ducks could be heading into a trap on the road against the Hawkeyes.

Both these teams play some of the best defense in the country, but one side has the clear advantage when it comes to eating up chunks of yards offensively when they need to.

Iowa’s offense remains in hibernation, ranking fourth-worst in passing output and mustering all of 5.5 yards per play when throwing the football.

The Hawkeyes’ defense will contain the Ducks’ elusive perimeter threats long enough before the dam breaks and Mark Gronowski and Company won’t have enough to match it in crunch time.

College Football HQ picks...

Oregon wins 24-16
Covers the spread
And hits the under

More: Oregon vs. Iowa score prediction by expert football model

How to watch Oregon vs. Iowa

When: Sat., Nov. 8
Time: 3:30 p.m. Eastern
Where: CBS network

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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