Paul Finebaum Makes Georgia vs. Alabama Pick, Names Kirby Smart's Major Problem

Kirby Smart has never beaten Alabama in the regular season, and Georgia heads to Tuscaloosa without one of its top two running backs

Television and radio personality Paul Finebaum does a live report from SEC Media Day | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

ESPN analyst Paul Finebaum says Saturday’s top-10 showdown carries more weight for No. 2 Georgia than No. 6 Alabama, pointing to Kirby Smart’s winless regular-season record against the Crimson Tide.

“It’s bigger for Georgia because Georgia has an Alabama problem, and so does Kirby Smart,” Finebaum said Friday on ESPN’s “Get Up.” Alabama has won every regular-season meeting since Georgia’s overtime win in Tuscaloosa in 2007.

Kirby Smart’s Alabama regular-season drought

Georgia Bulldogs head coach Kirby Smart lifts the SEC Championship trophy after the game against the Alabama Crimson Tide during the 2025 SEC Championship Game at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Finebaum dismissed Georgia’s 28-7 win over Alabama in last season’s SEC Championship Game.

“I’m well aware, Greeny, that Georgia won the last game. It was in the SEC Championship Game, and all my Bama friends say, ‘We were banged up. We weren’t ready to play.’ Well, big deal,” Finebaum said. “But the problem is that Kirby Smart has yet to beat Alabama in the regular season.”

Alabama coach Kalen DeBoer has won both of his regular-season meetings with Smart, 41-34 at Bryant-Denny Stadium in 2024 and 24-21 in Athens last season. Finebaum also raised the streak on Wednesday’s “Get Up,” calling a third straight loss to DeBoer “almost unthinkable when you think about Kirby Smart as being the premier coach.”

Will weather affect Georgia vs. Alabama?

Alabama and the SEC monitored Hurricane Isaias all week as forecasts called for heavy rain in Tuscaloosa. Finebaum doesn’t expect the storm to factor into the 7:30 p.m. ET kickoff on ABC.

“The storm is long gone,” Finebaum said. “I’ve read weather maps more this week than I have read books on how to grow more hair, Greeny, and it’s just not going to be a big deal. The grass at Tuscaloosa drains about as well as Augusta National.”

Finebaum picks Alabama over Georgia

Alabama Crimson Tide quarterback Keelon Russell (12) passes the ball during the third quarter against the Mississippi State Bulldogs at Davis Wade Stadium at Scott Field. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Finebaum took Alabama, as did ESPN analyst Dan Orlovsky, while Joe Fortenbaugh and Harry Douglas picked Georgia.

“I think this Alabama team is so complete,” Finebaum said. “Georgia has a slightly better defense, but the fact that we’re talking about Alabama in the same category is important. Alabama’s offense has been explosive.”

Alabama ranks first nationally in offensive success rate, and Finebaum gave the quarterback edge to Keelon Russell, who has 11 touchdown passes and two interceptions. Georgia’s Gunner Stockton has thrown 13 touchdowns and one interception.

“Take nothing away from Gunner Stockton. He’s really played well, but he’s not the best quarterback in this game,” Finebaum said. “Keelon Russell can manage a game like I’ve never seen from a freshman, and they have a good running game.”

Georgia will also play without running back Chauncey Bowens, who was ruled out after getting hurt against Vanderbilt. Bowens has 164 rushing yards and six touchdowns on 35 carries.

“Georgia has lost one of its top two running backs,” Finebaum said. “That’s a big deal in a game like this.”

“Georgia has an Alabama problem, and so does Kirby Smart.” 👀@finebaum on why this is a bigger game for Georgia 🏈 pic.twitter.com/omVAoIrWki

— Get Up (@GetUpESPN) October 9, 2026