Predicting every SEC football team's first loss in the 2025 season

Left out of the national championship race over the last two seasons, the SEC is eager to reclaim its title as the most dominant conference in college football.

The good news is the selection committee regards the SEC as playing the most difficult schedule just about every season, and that slate is about to get harder as the conference added a ninth inter-league game to its schedule starting next season.

And there are more than a few teams across the SEC who can more than credibly make a run for the national title in 2025, with 10 schools from this conference earning a place in the AP top 25 preseason football rankings.

More: SEC football strength of schedule rankings in 2025

Looking forward to the SEC football schedule in 2025, when could each of the conference’s teams lose their first game of the season?

Arkansas

Predicting each SEC football team's first loss in 2025 — Nelson Chenault-Imagn Images

First loss: at Oklahoma, Sept. 20

All eyes will be on the Razorbacks in this early SEC face-off against a Rebels squad that won 10 games a year ago, but is undergoing a major roster transition.

Ole Miss dumped 63 points on the Hogs in last year’s meeting, but this rematch should be a little closer with Arkansas expected to perform better and Lane Kiffin’s team still facing serious questions this early in the year.

Kentucky

First loss: vs. Ole Miss, Sept. 6

Mark Stoops’ men pulled off a signature upset against the Rebels on the road last season, throwing an early monkey wrench into their playoff hopes, and this year Ole Miss will be out for revenge.

Mississippi State

First loss: vs. Arizona State, Sept. 6

Jeff Lebby should start 1-0 with a win against Southern Miss to start out, but his Bulldogs will face a stiff test against the defending Big 12 champions, who, while they lose brawler Cam Skattebo in this backfield, still present a major threat with quarterback Sam Leavitt and thousand-yard wideout Jordyn Tyson coming back.

Missouri

First loss: vs. South Carolina, Sept. 20

Missouri plays the easiest schedule in the SEC this season, playing its first six games at home, but one of those could go sideways as the Gamecocks bring back quarterback LaNorris Sellers and Dylan Stewart, one of college football’s top edge rushers.

Auburn

First loss: at Baylor, Aug. 29

We’re expecting more from Auburn this season after scoring five-star quarterback transfer Jackson Arnold to pilot an offense that includes some of the SEC’s top wide receivers, but going on the road against a legit Big 12 contender that finished very strong last year and returns the core of its offense is a tough out to start with.

Vanderbilt

First loss: at Virginia Tech, Sept. 6

Vandy brings back almost 80 percent of last season’s production, including quarterback Diego Pavia, but face a tough ACC road trip in Week 2, facing a Hokies team that returns dual-threat signal caller Kyron Drones, who is back and healthy and working in a new offensive system that should exploit his skill set more.

Florida

First loss: at LSU, Sept. 13

Florida won just once in its last seven tries against LSU and now has to go into Death Valley against a Tigers squad that is either under major pressure after losing at Clemson in the opener, or considerably stronger after beating it.

This will likely be the first of four straight games the Gators play against ranked opponents and a crucial early test to see if this team has truly turned the corner after finishing last season so strong.

Oklahoma

First loss: vs. Texas, Oct. 11

Once again, the SEC didn’t pull any punches giving the Sooners a tough schedule, but the first half of this slate should put this team on a much firmer foundation.

We project OU will start 5-0, including a win against Michigan, but may not prove as successful against a Texas team that looks like the best in the nation.

Ole Miss

First loss: vs. LSU, Sept. 27

There are new defensive inputs and a brand new quarterback for the Rebels in some major turnover that will test Lane Kiffin’s reign as the Portal King, but they get a key home-field advantage in the Magnolia Bowl against LSU late in September.

That’s important, given the home team has won the last five games in this series, and if things don’t go well early on for LSU, then Ole Miss could effectively trash their rival’s season with a win here.

South Carolina

First loss: at LSU, Oct. 11

South Carolina could either take another step forward, or take two steps backwards, after losing several of the key contributors on what was one of college football’s most ferocious defensive units last season.

We predict the former, at least early on, but the Gamecocks go into Baton Rouge in what will be the first of five straight games against currently-ranked teams, a stretch that will test Shane Beamer’s coaching chops.

Tennessee

First loss: vs. Georgia, Sept. 13

Not since his first season as Kirby Smart lost a game to the rival Volunteers, and this season shouldn’t prove any different given the changes Tennessee has endured on its roster, losing its starting quarterback, lead rusher, four blockers, and key receivers.

Texas A&M

First loss: at Notre Dame, Sept. 13

Notre Dame used a win over the Aggies on the road to build a national title runner-up campaign last fall, and could do so again under the eyes of Touchdown Jesus in 2025.

Marcel Reed returns to command an A&M offense that returns some of college football’s most experienced blockers, a solid ground game, and very promising transfer receivers, but the Aggies’ front seven needs to get much tougher to contend with a very solid Irish rushing attack.

LSU

First loss: at Clemson, Aug. 30

Brian Kelly is yet to win a season opener during his tenure at LSU, and going on the road against the ACC title favorite could extend that aggravating streak.

Kelly has the quarterback and the receivers to get after Clemson’s secondary, the relative weakness of a great defense, but Cade Klubnik is coming off his best year passing, has his own weapons, and one of college football’s best home-field advantages to test an LSU back seven that has struggled against better aerial attacks.

Texas

First loss: None

That’s right, we’re projecting the Longhorns will run the table this season, despite their own head coach saying we may never see another undefeated team in college football.

They have the edge even at Ohio State, with a better pass rushing combo and a slightly more experienced quarterback, and the only other real challenges are road tests against Florida and Georgia. Texas could trip up in that latter one, but we don’t think so.

Georgia

First loss: vs. Texas, Nov. 15

The reigning SEC champions start out 9-0 in our predictions, passing major tests at Tennessee and at home against Alabama and Ole Miss, and they should have an edge at Auburn, even if that rivalry can get closer than the Bulldogs intend.

Texas was the one team Georgia beat out of those three tough road games last fall, and this time the Longhorns’ front seven rotation will get the better of a Bulldogs line replacing some interior blockers and shake up an offense with a new quarterback at the helm.

Alabama

First loss: at Georgia, Sept. 27

Two wins against non-conference Power Four teams Florida State and Wisconsin will feel good to start out, but the real test comes four weeks into the season as the Crimson Tide lines up between the hedges looking to make it two straight.

Alabama knocked off No. 2 Georgia in Tuscaloosa last season, and this rematch will have equally-weighty College Football Playoff implications, but this time the Bulldogs’ defense will have a much easier time trying to corral Ty Simpson, not Jalen Milroe.