College football rankings: Predicting the AP top 25 preseason poll

It's finally time: as the preseason AP top 25 college football rankings is set to go live today, we take a stab at predicting what the poll will look like when voters cast their ballots.

Let's take a shot at predicting the AP top 25 preseason college football rankings heading into the 2025 kickoff. | USA Today Sports | IMAGN

The preseason AP top 25 college football rankings may not be the best way to predict the national championship in a given season, but they do provide a key early barometer for fans to see how teams stack up against each other as the season prepares to kick off.

USC in 2004 and Alabama in 2017 are the only teams in this century to debut in the No. 1 position in the preseason AP football rankings and finish as national champions, so being top dog in the early poll isn’t all it’s cracked up to be.

And with the expansion of the College Football Playoff from four to 12 teams, there’s far more likelihood that unranked teams will earn a place in the postseason field, after four preseason unranked teams earned a place among the final dozen last year.

Still, the very top of the preseason poll can give us some hints as to what the eventual national title race will look like, as no eventual champion in the College Football Playoff era has ever started lower than No. 6 in the first rankings.

Here’s our final prediction for what the AP top 25 college football rankings could look like moving into the 2025 season.

College football rankings: Predicting the AP top 25 preseason poll

25. Boise State. Once again the class of the Group of Five, the Broncos lose all-world back Ashton Jeanty, but return enough firepower elsewhere on the field to make another run at the playoff this year, especially with Maddux Madsen returning at quarterback.

24. Oklahoma. The coaches spurned the Sooners in their preseason rankings, a mistake that AP top 25 voters could rectify, with what could be major upgrades on this offense with the addition of quarterback John Mateer and tailback Jaydn Ott, instant-impact players who can credibly test SEC defenses right away.

23. SMU. After making the College Football Playoff in their ACC debut, the Mustangs return quarterback Kevin Jennings, but have to ensure he has the right replacements around him and get through what will be a more difficult schedule this time around.

Iowa State nearly won the Big 12 title a year ago, but has questions at the wide receiver position in 2025. | Jerome Miron-Imagn Images

22. Iowa State. The Big 12 runner-up won double-digit games for the first time ever last season, but now lose their two blue-chip, thousand-yard receivers, throwing this offense potentially into some confusion, but quarterback Rocco Becht is an important stabilizer.

21. Texas Tech. College Football HQ ranked the Red Raiders’ transfer class as the nation’s best this year after shelling out big money in particular to beef up their defensive rotation, while Behren Morton brings crucial experience to the quarterback position.

20. Tennessee. Joey Aguilar steps into the QB1 role after Nico Iamaleava’s stunning exit, high on production but also occasionally on turnovers, paired with a new-look receiver room and a backfield in transition, but the Vols’ defense should still be a point of strength.

The middle of the pack

Ole Miss nearly made the College Football Playoff a year ago, but has to replace a ton of outgoing talent in 2025. | Petre Thomas-Imagn Images

19. Ole Miss. This year will test Lane Kiffin’s reign as Portal King after losing the bulk of the Rebels’ superb 10-win team from a year ago, with all eyes on Austin Simmons to bring athleticism to the quarterback role vacated by Jaxson Dart, and linebacker Suntarine Perkins to lead a defense that returns an expected two starters.

18. Indiana. We probably won’t see a re-run of last year’s Hoosiers squad that stunned the world and made the College Football Playoff, but there’s enough returning production on both sides of the ball and quality reinforcements like quarterback Fernando Mendoza to keep Indiana in the mix for another successful run.

17. Texas A&M. Marcel Reed returns to lead an offense that boasts a solid run game and a very experienced line, but the Aggies need to get a lot more from a secondary that struggled against better passing opponents and beef up a sluggish run defense.

16. Kansas State. Avery Johnson is back alongside Dylan Edwards to run the ball and the Wildcats present a very formidable front seven defensively, in prime position to make a run in a very competitive Big 12 title picture.

15. Florida. AP top 25 voters could be more cautious than this with the Gators given the injury situation involving quarterback DJ Lagway, but when healthy, he’s one of the SEC’s best returning signal callers working with solid skill threats at receiver and back, and all are working behind an experienced line and a defense that made strides late last season.

Michigan closed with wins against Ohio State and Alabama last season, but needs to resurrect its vertical game in 2025. | Matt Pendleton-Imagn Images

14. Michigan. College football’s fifth-worst passing offense should be better this time around with either No. 1 recruit Bryce Underwood or veteran transfer Jake Garcia at the helm, but the Wolverines are still yet to prove they have a sufficient supporting cast and have to make some prominent replacements on defense.

13. Arizona State. The reigning Big 12 champs may lose brawler Cam Skattebo from the backfield, but return Sam Leavitt under center and thousand-yard pass catcher Jordyn Tyson to stretch the field.

12. Illinois. “This year’s Indiana” seems to be the designation analysts have given the Illini, but they won’t surprise with another run this year after winning 10 games last fall and returning the bulk of that production, led by quarterback Luke Altmyer.

11. South Carolina. LaNorris Sellers is one of the SEC’s top returning quarterbacks and Dylan Stewart one of the nation’s premier edge rushers, but elsewhere the Gamecocks have to patch holes on both lines, at wide receiver, and at running back.

This year’s Top Ten

10. Miami. Carson Beck headlines the Hurricanes’ offense after his bombshell transfer from Georgia, and he has the benefit of an experienced rotation of blockers, but the nation’s top-ranked offense from a year ago debuts a pile of unproven receivers and this defense needs to tighten up on the back end.

LSU has the firepower to play for an SEC title and more, provided they can get better returns on the defensive side of the football. | Scott Kinser-Imagn Images

9. LSU. Garrett Nussmeier returns to lead college football’s seventh-ranked passing attack with some new receivers to work with, while Harold Perkins and Whit Weeks man the middle of what needs to be an improved defense with key transfers on the edges.

8. Oregon. The reigning Big Ten champions install new faces at several key positions like quarterback, offensive line, and in the secondary, but the replacements are top-notch, especially on the line, and in ex-Tulane transfer back Makhi Hughes.

7. Alabama. Kalen DeBoer and new play-caller Ryan Grubb need to prove they can craft an offense without playmaking quarterback Jalen Milroe, and they’ll have plenty of help from a promising line and excellent receivers, and much of the Tide’s defense back.

6. Clemson. Expect the ACC title favorites to get some first-place votes, like they did in the Coaches Poll, returning Cade Klubnik after a career year with 43 total touchdowns, surrounded by experienced blockers and a promising receiver group, but they need incoming coordinator Tom Allen to get more from what remains a very talented defensive rotation.

The best of the best

Notre Dame has the firepower to get back into the College Football Playoff, even with a big change at quarterback. | MICHAEL CLUBB/SOUTH BEND TRIBUNE / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

5. Notre Dame. Turnover at quarterback could curtail the Irish offense early on against some tough opponents, but Jeremiyah Love and Jadarian Price still lead one of college football’s top backfields, and the Golden Domers boast serious defensive continuity, especially in the secondary once again.

4. Georgia. There are major question marks at quarterback, the offensive line, and in a run game that ranked just 15th in the conference a year ago, but predictably this defense returns enough tonnage to play back into SEC title contention, and those tough three games they played on the road last year, in which Georgia went 1-2, are all at home this time.

3. Penn State. Talk about offensive continuity, as the Nittany Lions return their quarterback, two star rushers, four blockers, and another superb defensive rotation, but how this team develops its receiver group will really determine if they can unlock this vertical game and make another deep playoff run.

2. Ohio State. College football’s defending champs lose a ton, including both coordinators, two thousand-yard backs, their quarterback, elite blockers, and star pass rushers, but return Jeremiah Smith, the nation’s top receiver, and a solid pass defense.

1. Texas. Arch Manning gets most of the attention, as he did even when he was a backup, but the Longhorns will rely more on a stacked defense, including arguably college football’s best pass rush, and their elite skill players early on to build a foundation from.

More: When the AP top 25 rankings will be released

Rankings: ESPN top 25 | Coaches Poll | Phil Steele’s AP poll

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