My Two Cents: My 2025 '3 Up/3 Down' Picks on Team Win Totals

TAMPA, Fla. — Thursday is the official Opening Day for Major League Baseball, and we will indeed ignore that there's already been two games in Japan and Tampa Bay and Colorado don't start until Friday. For a baseball fan, this is our Christmas morning.

Let's upwrap the present that is the 2025 baseball season.

With today's first pitches comes the first batch of winners and losers over 2,430 games and six months. And with it is one of my favorite fun columns of the year, when I pick three teams to go over their projected win totals this season, and three to come up short.

I've had good success with this, going 5-1 two years in a row. In 2023, all of my overs (Tampa Bay, Atlanta, Seattle) came through for me, and I got two unders (Boston, Los Angeles Angels) right. My only miss was Detroit, who topped their 68.5 win total because the Chicago White Sox and Kansas City Royals in their division both wound up being horrible, losing 100-plus games.

Last year, I got all the unders correct. The injury riddled Rays and Braves were winners for me, and the White Sox were the easist pick ever, not covering their 63.5 number. They went 41-121, the most losses in modern baseball history. I got two overs correct, the Yankees and Royals, but missed out on the Houston Astros, who won 88 instead of 93.5. (In my defense, they still won the AL West.)

So now we're on to 2025, and I'm not feeling nearly as confident in my choices, mostly because I'm taking a few fliers. But that's the joy of this exercise. We won't know until October if I'm right or wrong.

Here's what we're working with. I used the Fanduel.com lines this season, and here are the over/under win totals for all 30 teams.

American League East

New York Yankees: 88.5 wins
Baltimore Orioles: 86.5 wins
Boston Red Sox: 86.5 wins
Tampa Bay Rays: 80.5 wins
Toronto Blue Jays: 79.5 wins

American League Central

Minnesota Twins: 84.5 wins
Detroit Tigers: 83.5 wins
Cleveland Guardians: 82.5 wins
Kansas City Royals: 82.5 wins
Chicago White Sox: 54.5 wins

American League West

Houston Astros: 86.5 wins
Texas Rangers: 86.5 wins
Seattle Mariners: 85.5 wins
Los Angeles Angels: 72.5 wins
The Athletics: 71.5 wins

National League East

Atlanta Braves: 93.5 wins
New York Mets: 90.5 wins
Philadelphia Phillies: 90.5 wins
Washington Nationals: 70.5 wins
Miami Marlins: 63.5 wins

National League Central

Chicago Cubs: 86.5 wins
Milwaukee Brewers: 82.5 wins
Cincinnati Reds: 79.5 wins
Pittsburgh Pirates: 75.5 wins
St. Louis Cardinals 75.5 wins

National League West

Los Angeles Dodgers 105.5 wins
Arizona Diamondbacks: 86.5 wins
San Diego Padres: 85.5 wins
San Francisco Giants: 79.5 wins
Colorado Rockies: 59.5 wins

So let's roll with the selections. I've had to make some adjustments because I wanted to go the under on the Yankees from the minute Juan Soto signed with the Mets, but they've had so many injuries that the line has dropped from 93.5 to 88.5 in two months. So I didn't bite.

But here are my three overs, which I feel pretty good about.

MLB over win totals for 2025

LOS ANGELES DODGERS (105.5 wins): The Dodgers have the highest win total on the board, and it's not even close. But it also hasn't scared me off one bit. This team is loaded, at every level. They have great starting pitching, a much improved bullpen and a lineup filled with potential Hall of Famers. I think they'll threaten the record for wins (116) this year, and will fly by this total.

KANSAS CITY ROYALS (82.5 wins): The American League Central is interesting because there are four very even teams, and a gawd-awful White Sox. Someone needs to emerge from the pack, and I think it's going to be the Royals. Bobby Witt Jr. might win an MVP this year, Cole Ragans is one of my favorite pitchers and they can get people out. The Royals won 86 games a year ago and made the playoffs for the first time in nine years. I don't see them going backwards.

TAMPA BAY RAYS (80.5 wins): I know there's some geographic bias to this choice, because the Rays are the team in my current hometown and I watch them more than anyone. But I look at this club and I don't see a team with a losing record. Several factors why, but the most important one is that I love their starting rotation. Yes, I hated that Shane McClanahan will start the season on the IL, but it's minor and he's going to have a great year. So will Drew Rasmussen, who's also back from an elbow injury. And young guys Shane Baz, Taj Bradley and Ryan Pepiot all have great stuff. The Rays missed the playoffs last year for the first time in six years simply because couldn't hit and couldn't overcome all their pitching injuries. They'll be better this year, and I trust Kevin Cash. They win mid- to high-80s and contend in the AL East.

Just missing the cut, the Boston Red Sox, Cincinnati Reds, Seattle Mariners and Arizona Diamondbacks.

MLB under win totals for 2025

TORONTO BLUE JAYS (79.5 wins): I'm reaching a bit with this one, and here's why. Their roster as presently constructed is better than this number, but I'm fully expecting that they'll be forced to deal away fan favorites Vladimir Guerrero Jr and Bo Bichette this summer at some point to officially start a rebuild. They can get a haul for both of them — many thought they should have done it in the winter — and might stagger to the finish line this year. I can't see them getting to 80 if they make the trades.

ST. LOUIS CARDINALS (75.5 wins): I have no clue what's going on in St. Louis. One of the sport's most reliable franchises for a century, it's just doesn't seem like they have a plan right now. The National League Central isn't great, but I think the Cubs and Reds are better, and the Brewers aren't going away. I think the Cards finish dead last. Oddsmakers are with me on this, because this line was 79.5 a few months ago. I am a little worried covering that line since it's dropped, but we'll see.

SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS (79.5 wins): There are a lot of things to like about this Giants team, like Logan Webb, the rest of the rotation and newcomer Willy Adames. But since I think the Dodgers are all-world and the Diamondbacks and Padres are two teams I really like too in the NL West, I just don't see where 80 wins are going to come from in San Francisco. I just don't think they'll hit enough to finish over .500.

Just missing the cut, the New York Yankees, Chicago White Sox — just trying to be nice as we launch a new Sox site — the Houston Astros and Pittsburgh Pirates.

Watch the first 'Payoff Pitch Podcast'

The season is off and running and so is the 2025 premier of the ''Payoff Pitch Podcast'' on Fastball on SI. We start with our latest expanson on our site, adding national columnists this year. Tom Brew, Jack Ankony and Brady Farkas will be sharing their thoughts in columns all year, but they'll get together for a podcast every week. too.

The first version is up and running, and available on our Fastball YouTube channel. We're going to put all of our podcasts there this season, plus a ton of video after every game. Hit the subscribe button whne you're there. It's all free.