Who Will Be the Next Player to Reach 3,000 Hits? Freddie Freeman, José Altuve Could Be Best Bets
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With another year of Hall of Fame voting come and gone, it's only natural to start looking ahead.
We at Fastball did it ourselves, publishing a preview of the 2025 ballot less than 24 hours after the 2024 class had been revealed. And in an effort to provide full transparency, this writer spent a good chunk of his downtime this week pouring through the players who will become eligible in 2026, 2027 and 2028.
Longtime Seattle Mariners outfielder Ichiro Suzuki is a sure-fire bet to make it to Cooperstown in 2025. Other locks include St. Louis Cardinals and Los Angeles Angels first baseman Albert Pujols in 2028, then Florida Marlins and Detroit Tigers slugger Miguel Cabrera in 2029.
Something all three of those batters have in common is that they are members of MLB's 3,000-hit club. They are three of the four most recent players to join that exclusive group, with the fourth being third baseman Adrian Beltre, who was voted into the Hall of Fame on Tuesday night.
Reaching 3,000 hits has essentially acted as an automatic bid for players to make it to Cooperstown – and for good reason, given how difficult it is to achieve.
Of the 30 players in the 3,000-hit club who have reached Hall of Fame eligibility, 27 have been voted in. The three who have not – Pete Rose, Rafael Palmeiro and Alex Rodriguez – have been tied to either gambling or steroid controversies.
Since Hank Aaron achieved the feat in 1970, players have recorded their 3,000th career hits 25 times in 54 seasons, or roughly once every other year. The most prominent drought came between 1979 and 1992, when Rod Carew's 3,000th hit in 1985 was the only one of its kind.
We could be staring down the barrel of a dry period like that in the years ahead, looking at the sport's active hits leaderboard.
Joey Votto leads all active players with 2,135 hits, but he is 40 years old and just got pushed out the door by the Cincinnati Reds. Nelson Cruz and his 2,053 hits, meanwhile, just retired this offseason, as did outfielder Michael Brantley and infielder Daniel Murphy, who barely made it halfway to 3K.
Shortstop Elvis Andrus and outfielder Andrew McCutchen just got their 2,000th hits in 2023, but the former is a 35-year-old free agent and the latter is likely gearing up for one final season with the Pittsburgh Pirates at the age of 37. A 38-year-old Evan Longoria is sitting at 1,930 hits as he waits for a team to give him a call in free agency, which is where 34-year-old Eric Hosmer and his 1,753 hits lie as well.
New York Yankees infielder DJ LeMahieu (1,697 hits at 35 years old), Colorado Rockies outfielder Charlie Blackmon (1,690 hits at 37 years old), free agent catcher/first baseman Carlos Santana (1,667 at 37 years old), free agent designated hitter JD Martinez (1,639 hits at 36 years old) and Houston Astros slugger José Abreu (1,573 hits at 36 year old) can all safely be counted out in the race to 3,000.
Even Cardinals first baseman Paul Goldschmidt has yet to reach 2,000 hits entering his age-36 season, which is to say nothing of his current contract expiring this fall.
Perhaps the best contender to become the next member of the 3,000-hit club is Los Angeles Dodgers first baseman Freddie Freeman, who is second to Votto with 2,114 career hits. Having just turned 34 years old, Freeman appears to be in his prime, leading the National League with 199 hits in 2022 before racking up 211 more in 2023.
Freeman has only missed 11 games in the last six seasons combined, so his durability and consistency have helped him surge to new levels despite being in his mid-30s. Should he continue his average of 197 hits from the past three seasons, it would take Freeman another four-and-a-half years to reach 3,000.
That would require Freeman playing through the 2028 season. Freeman's current contract with the Dodgers runs out following 2027, so he would have to find a new deal before then, but he would still only be 38 years old at that point.
Behind Freeman is Astros second baseman José Altuve, who is 33 years old with 2,047 hits under his belt.
Altuve is coming off an injury-riddled 2023, which does not bode well for his potential longevity. A 5-foot-6, scrappy infielder like Altuve typically doesn't have the longest shelf life – see Boston Red Sox star Dustin Pedroia, who played in just 28 regular season games after his 34th birthday.
If Altuve were to get back to appearing in 140 games a year, taking into account his pace over the last three years, he would need to play an additional 5.9 seasons to reach 3,000 hits. That doesn't give him much wiggle room, either, since those projections have Altuve reaching the milestone in September of 2029.
Altuve playing until he is 40, which is what it would take if he wants to suit up come 2030, is a tall order. So even Altuve, who led the American League with 200-plus hits every year for 2014 to 2017, may come up just shy of the feat.
Looking beyond Freeman and Altuve, the picture become a lot more unclear.
San Diego Padres third baseman Manny Machado, has 1,737 hits entering his age-31 season. That is slightly ahead of Beltre's pace, but keep in mind that Beltre actually got better after turning 30, plus he remained an everyday player until he was 39.
Angels outfielder Mike Trout, for as incredible as he has been for the past decade-plus, has also been incredibly injury-prone. With 1,624 hits in his back pocket at the age of 32, it would take quite the resurgence for him to reach 3,000.
Xander Bogaerts had 1,580 hits before turning 31 this offseason, while fellow 31-year-olds Bryce Harper and Mookie Betts are sitting at 1,513 and 1,485, respectively. 32-year-old Christian Yelich has 1,505 hits to his name.
Trout, Bogaerts, Harper, Betts and Yelich would essentially have to double their career hits across their 30s and potentially 40s, and it's difficult to predict how those players will age.
The 3,000-hit club is exclusive for a reason. It's hard to rack up hit after hit against MLB pitchers, and it's even harder to do that consistently at a high level over the course of a 15-to-20-year career.
Freeman is the best bet to join the group, and Altuve ranks second, but considering they only broke into the 2,000-hit club in 2023, they won't be able to do so until the tail end of the decade. Beyond them, it's hard to see who can be the next to reach 3,000 career hits.
If no one steps up to the plate, Cabrera could be the only player to join the 3,000-hit club in the 2020s, emulating what Carew did in the 1980s.
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