Breaking Down the Boston Red Sox's 2024 Starting Rotation Ahead of Opening Day

Brayan Bello is now poised to lead a Boston Red Sox rotation that features mostly pitchers who have thrived more as long relievers than they have as starters.

The 2024 MLB regular season is about to begin, and that means it's time for every club to lock down its top five starting pitchers.

One of the Boston Red Sox's biggest weaknesses in 2023 was their starting rotation, and they head into 2024 with an even thinner group than they had last season. With Chris Sale and James Paxton gone, it's going to be up to homegrown talents and tweener long relievers to emerge as legitimate starting options this year.

Here is a quick preview of how Boston's starting pitching will look in 2024:

1. Brayan Bello, RHP
2023 Stats: 12-11, 4.24 ERA, 1.338 WHIP, 7.6 K/9, 3.2 WAR
2024 Projections: 11-11, 4.29 ERA, 7.7 K/9, 2.6 WAR

It's been a long time since the Red Sox have had a legitimate homegrown starter at the top of their rotation – Clay Buchholz and Jon Lester were the most recent ones, and they debuted over 15 years ago. It remains to be seen if Bello can reach the heights that those two did, but his promising first half of 2023 and lucrative long-term extension are a good start.

2. Nick Pivetta, RHP
2023 Stats: 10-9, 4.04 ERA, 1.121 WHIP, 11.5 K/9, 2.3 WAR
2024 Projections: 10-11, 4.47 ERA, 9.8 K/9, 2.1 WAR

After two mediocre seasons of 30-plus starts, Pivetta became a long reliever and really thrived in 2023. The lack of fresh blood in Boston means Pivetta is returning to the rotation in 2024, though, so he will have to carry over that momentum despite the role reset.

3. Kutter Crawford, RHP
2023 Stats: 6-8, 4.04 ERA, 1.106 WHIP, 9.4 K/9, 2.6 WAR
2024 Projections: 9-10, 4.69 ERA, 8.5 K/9, 1.6 WAR

Like Pivetta, Crawford was much better in his eight relief appearances than he was in his 23 starts last season. Crawford ranked third on the team with 129.1 innings pitched, and he may have to bump that number up even higher if he is really going to be a middle-of-the-rotation mainstay.

4. Garrett Whitlock, RHP
2023 Stats: 5-5, 5.15 ERA, 1.326 WHIP, 9.0 K/9, 0.3 WAR
2024 Projections: 7-7, 4.27 ERA, 8.4 K/9, 1.4 WAR

Whitlock had a stellar rookie year in 2021, posting a 1.96 ERA in 46 appearances out of the bullpen. He has slowly transitioned into becoming a regular starter, however, and his production has dipped in unison. So now, the Red Sox are counting on an injury-prone righty with a 2.65 ERA as a reliever and a 4.76 ERA as a starter to hold things down in the bottom half of their rotation.

5. Tanner Houck, RHP
2023 Stats: 6-10, 5.01 ERA, 1.386 WHIP, 8.4 K/9, 1.3 WAR
2024 Projections: 9-9, 4.31 ERA, 8.3 K/9, 1.9 WAR

Houck was once a top prospect for the Red Sox, and he showed why from 2020 to 2022. He wasn't relied upon to make a ton of starts or eat up a ton of innings, and he enjoyed a 3.02 ERA and 1.123 WHIP in that span as a result. When he became a full-time starter in 2023, Houck had injury issues and watched his ERA balloon over 5.00.

Longtime Chicago White Sox ace Lucas Giolito was expected to be towards the top of the Red Sox's rotation this season, but he hurt his elbow during Spring Training and is now likely to miss most of 2024. Graduating prospects Bryan Mata and Chris Murphy are currently dealing with injuries as well.

All 2024 projections are compiled using FanGraphs' Steamer model.

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