How Surprisingly Competitive NL Central is Shaking Up MLB Playoff Race

Not many saw this one coming.

Sep 11, 2023; Baltimore, Maryland, USA; A detailed view of the 9/11 ribbon on a St. Louis Cardinals hat in the dugout before the game against the Baltimore Orioles at Oriole Park at Camden Yards. Mandatory Credit: Tommy Gilligan-Imagn Images | Tommy Gilligan-Imagn Images

The 2026 season is a few weeks old, and one division in particular is grabbing a lot of headlines. The National League Central was expected to be one of the least competitive divisions in Major League Baseball, yet it has four teams above the .500 mark, while the entire American League only has three.

It is still very early in the 2026 season, so it remains to be seen if this will last. However, assuming it does, the playoff picture could look much different than expected by the time the regular season comes to an end, and it should be interesting to see just how everything plays out.

How NL Central could shake up playoff race

Apr 4, 2026; Detroit, Michigan, USA; St. Louis Cardinals right fielder Jordan Walker (18) receives congratulations from teammates after he hits a grand slam in the fifth inning against the Detroit Tigers at Comerica Park. Mandatory Credit: Rick Osentoski-Imagn Images | Rick Osentoski-Imagn Images

It's still a little bit early to be looking at the Wild Card races, but they do provide some important context here. The Cincinnati Reds and Milwaukee Brewers are tied atop the division with an 8-4 record. Meanwhile, the St. Louis Cardinals and Pittsburgh Pirates are tied for third, but are just one game back at 7-5.

That accounts for all of the teams that are currently over .500 in the division, but the Chicago Cubs, despite being in last place, are 6-6 and only two games out of first, so they still have a good chance to come out on top.

But here is where things get interesting. By virtue of trailing the season series with the Reds, the Brewers lead the Wild Card race. The Pirates and Cardinals are one game back and are in a four-way tie with the New York Mets and Miami Marlins for the final two spots.

This means that if things continue the way they are, the NL Central could have four teams in the playoffs. Last year, three teams made it to the postseason, so it's not like this is much of a stretch, but the NL Central was not expected to be this competitive.

If all four of the top teams make it, then the road gets much harder for teams like the Mets, Philadelphia Phillies, San Diego Padres and Arizona Diamondbacks. Some of the bigger market teams could find themselves on the outside looking in, while the NL Central completely changes the postseason landscape.

It would also mark the first time in a full 162-game season that a team that finished fourth in its division made the postseason. We'll see how the rest of the season plays out.