Is It Time to Start Worrying About Reigning NL Cy Young Paul Skenes?

Pittsburgh's ace hasn't had the same zip on his fastball this year

Jul 25, 2026; Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, USA; Pittsburgh Pirates starting pitcher Paul Skenes (middle) surrenders the ball to manager Don Kelly (12) while being removed from the game during the sixth inning against the Chicago Cubs at PNC Park. Mandatory Credit: Charles LeClaire-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Pittsburgh Pirates right-hander Paul Skenes recently hasn't looked like the same pitcher who dominated the league over the past two seasons.

Skenes was pulled after five innings and just 65 pitches in his latest start against the Miami Marlins on Tuesday. The 24-year-old gave up one earned run on five hits and one walk while striking out four in the Pirates' 2-0 loss to the Marlins. This outing also marked his fourth straight start in which he's tossed fewer than six innings.

Arguably a bigger concern, though, is Skenes' recent drop in velocity. On Tuesday, the 2023 No. 1 overall draft pick's fastest pitch was 96.5 mph. His average four-seam fastball velocity this year is 96.8 mph, down from 98.2 mph in 2025, according to Statcast. That's somewhat alarming for a young hurler who frequently threw triple-digit heaters over the last two seasons.

Paul Skenes might just be human after all

Aug 11, 2026; Miami, Florida, USA; Pittsburgh Pirates pitcher Paul Skenes (30) throws against the Miami Marlins during the first inning at loanDepot Park. Mandatory Credit: Rhona Wise-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

When any pitcher sees a noticeable drop in velocity, many baseball fans immediately wonder whether they're injured. But it doesn't sound like that's a concern for Skenes or the Pirates right now. After Tuesday's outing, Pittsburgh manager Don Kelly said the 24-year-old's early exit wasn't due to an injury. However, he also noted that most players aren't 100 percent healthy this late in the season.

Some pundits may suggest that the 2026 World Baseball Classic could have negatively impacted Skenes. The reigning National League Cy Young Award winner threw 8 1/3 innings in two games for Team USA during the WBC this spring. Even if you add that to his 134 2/3 innings pitched in the regular season so far, he's still under his 2025 total of 187 2/3 innings. But it's technically possible that having to ramp up earlier this season ahead of the WBC could have adversely affected the 2024 NL Rookie of the Year.

Despite concerns about Skenes' velocity, the former LSU standout still has the seventh-most strikeouts in the majors this year with 166. His 3.88 ERA in 2026, though, is almost double the sub-2.00 ERA he posted in each of the previous two seasons. It also speaks volumes about how dominant the talented hurler has been over the past two years that a sub-4.00 ERA is generating this much of a buzz.

At this point, it wouldn't be the most shocking development if the Pirates eventually shut Skenes down early or if he undergoes a minor procedure in the offseason. But whatever the case is, plenty of fans will be curious to see how the three-time All-Star adjusts to the adversity he's faced this year.