Tarik Skubal Sweepstakes Could Reach Seriously Bonkers Numbers

The Tarik Skubal sweepstakes could end up reaching some wild numbers.

Sep 3, 2026; Los Angeles, California, USA; Los Angeles Dodgers starting pitcher Tarik Skubal (29) throws a pitch against the St. Louis Cardinals during the first inning at Dodger Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

The Tarik Skubal sweepstakes is fascinating and is going to end up being very, very expensive.

Skubal is a superstar. There's no denying that fact. The lefty is a two-time Cy Young Award winner and is potentially the scariest pitcher in baseball for opposing lineups. When he's on the hill, you can be confident that you're going to have a chance to win on any given day. He hasn't finished a season with an ERA above 2.80 since 2022 and has shown no signs of slowing down. But, arguably, some of the numbers being thrown around in his sweepstakes are absurd.

The Athletic's Jim Bowden reported that teams "know going in" that Skubal's price tag will fall between $350 and $500 million.

"Teams meeting with Skubal know going in that the price will end up between $350 and $500 million depending on years, and that the final contract will ultimately break the record for starting pitchers by both AAV and total amount," Bowden wrote.

The Tarik Skubal Market Is Wild

Los Angeles Dodgers pitcher Tarik Skubal (29) pitches during the first inning of their National League Championship Series game against the Milwaukee Brewers at American Family Field on Oct 11, 2026. | USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect

USA Today's Bob Nightengale reported that agent Scott Boras has made it clear that teams need to come in above $325 million to have a seat at the table in the market. Currently, Yoshinobu Yamamoto of the Los Angeles Dodgers has the largest contract for a starter in big league history at $325 million.

He got his deal at 25 years old. Skubal is 29 years old and will turn 30 in November. Now, of course, Skubal could get fewer years and a higher annual value than Yamamoto, and that's likely.

But the fact that the number $500 million was even mentioned is absurd. Over the last few years, contracts have exploded. Shohei Ohtani landed a $700 million deal and since then we've seen some deals really spike. Juan Soto beat out Ohtani and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. got $500 million, for example. Plus, of course, Yamamoto's deal.

Saying $500 million for Skubal isn't to say he isn't a great player. But he takes the hill once every fifth day. Guerrero, who did get a $500 million deal, is in the lineup pretty much every day, for example. Also, let's not forget that Skubal underwent elbow surgery during the 2026 season. He was able to bounce back in shocking fashion. But with pitchers, there's always concern that they are one pitch away from Tommy John surgery and missing a year.

Skubal has been the best pitcher in baseball over the last few years and should get paid very well. It's even a fair argument that he should beat Yamamoto's deal. But some of these numbers that have been mentioned are absurd. If a team hands a pitcher a $500 million deal, they are going to regret it in the long run.