Mariners' Magic Number, Playoff Odds Looking Great After Downing Astros

Some wins are simply bigger than others, and the Seattle Mariners took home a monstrous victory over the Houston Astros on Friday night.

With a clinical 4-0 takedown of their division rivals, the Mariners (85-69) moved into first place by a game and also took the lead 6-5 in the race for the head-to-head tiebreaker. Winning one of the last two games in the series would give them a crucial edge in the division title race with six games to play; winning both would put them at a nearly insurmountable advantage.

Elsewhere in the American League, the results were a mixed bag from the Mariners' perspective. But they took care of their own business, and they'll love where that leads them if they do so for another nine days.

Mariners' updated magic numbers, playoff odds

Sep 19, 2025; Houston, Texas, USA; Seattle Mariners third baseman Eugenio Suarez (28) reacts after hitting a home run to left field against the Houston Astros during the fourth inning at Daikin Park. Mandatory Credit: Erik Williams-Imagn Images | Erik Williams-Imagn Images

Suddenly, the playoff odds for the Mariners look fantastic. According to Fangraphs, they own a 99.1% chance to make the playoffs, a 75.2% chance to win the AL West, and a 58.9% chance to secure a first-round bye and advance straight to the Division Series.

The two other losses that helped the Mariners' cause were the Detroit Tigers (85-69) falling to the Atlanta Braves, and the New York Yankees (86-68) dropping one to the Baltimore Orioles. Seattle would be competing with the Tigers for that first-round bye if both teams win their divisions, and if it were to finish behind the Astros, New York would be its primary competition for the top wild card spot.

Of course, as ideal as the results were on the scoreboard, the injury status of All-Star starting pitcher Bryan Woo is a major concern moving forward. The 25-year-old is scheduled to undergo an MRI on Saturday after leaving his start after five innings with pectoral tightness, per Daniel Kramer of MLB.com.

As far as magic numbers go, Seattle owns 2 1/2-game lead on the Cleveland Guardians, the first team on the outside of the wild card picture looking in, plus the tiebreaker. To clinch the playoffs, the easiest path is for the Mariners to get a combination of wins and Guardians losses that adds up to six.

Meanwhile, the magic number for the division is slightly more complicated, as the last two games of the series will decide the tiebreaker with Houston. If the Mariners were to win both games, their magic number to clinch the division would be three. If they were to win one of the two, it would be five. And if they lost both, (so in theory, this is also what it is entering Saturday), it would be eight.

More MLB: Aaron Judge Or Cal Raleigh? Rival Execs Divided On Tight MVP Race