Willson Contreras Trade Grades: Did Red Sox or Cardinals Win the Deal?

Boston has a new first baseman in exchange for three arms headed to St. Louis.

The St. Louis Cardinals traded first baseman Willson Contreras to the Boston Red Sox for three pitchers. / Joe Puetz-Imagn Images

The Red Sox made another big move on Sunday night, turning to a familiar trade partner to improve their roster.

Boston acquired first baseman Willson Contreras from the Cardinals in exchange for three players. Last month, the two sides teamed up on a deal to send Sonny Gray to the Red Sox. This trade has the potential to be equally impactful.

St. Louis is receiving righthanders Hunter Dobbins, Yhoiker Fajardo, and Blake Aita, while sending Contreras and $8 million to the Sox.

So who won this swap? Let’s take a deeper look and hand out grades.

Red Sox, Cardinals grades in Willson Contreras trade

Red Sox
Grade: B-

Boston has been in on seemingly everyone this winter, but has yet to land the big fish it is looking for. After losing out on Kyle Schwarber and Pete Alonso, the Sox filled their first base need by landing the 33-year-old Contreras.

This deal will essentially see Contreras supplanting Triston Casas as the first baseman of the present and future in Boston. He’s due $36.5 million over the next two seasons, and his club option for 2028 increases from $17.5 million to $20 million with a $5 million buyout due to a trade escalator. He’ll also get $1 million for waiving his no-trade clause.

Contreras is a solid right-handed bat, but isn’t a WAR machine. In 2025, he slashed .257/.344/.447 with 20 home runs, 80 RBIs, and a wRC+ of 124. He posted 2.8 fWAR. His peak season came in 2022 with the Cubs, where he slashed .243/.349/.466 with 22 homers, 55 RBIs, and a wRC+ of 134. He posted 3.5 fWAR in 113 games. He’s coming off a biceps injury that ended his 2025 campaign and has had various injuries throughout his career that have limited the former catcher’s availability.

He can still get it done at the plate and provides a good right-handed bat in the middle of a Red Sox lineup littered with lefties. Roman Anthony, Jarren Duran, Wilyer Abreu, Masataka Yoshida and Marcelo Mayer are all lefties who project as regulars. Contreras helps balance things out.

In the end, he’s a good, proven right-handed bat, but Boston may have to deal with his poor defense at first base and the fact that he tends to miss a lot of games. It’s a solid pickup but far below where they aimed at first base to open the offseason.

Cardinals
Grade: B

The Cardinals continue their quest to clear the decks of veterans with big contracts. They have now unloaded Gray and Contreras for solid returns from Boston, while Brendan Donovan and Lars Nootbaar figure to be next.

Dobbins made his big league debut for the Red Sox in 2025, and in 13 appearances (11 starts) went 4–1 with a 4.13 ERA,1.28 WHIP and 45 strikeouts against 17 walks in 61 innings. He tore his ACL in July, which cut his season short, but he should be close to recovered by Opening Day.

The 26-year-old boasts a fastball that can touch the upper-90s, but averaged 95.5 mph in 2025. He misses barrels and doesn’t walk many batters, but he’s not a strikeout guy. Opposing hitters punished his fastball to the tune of a .281 xBA and a .472 xSLG. His slider (.301 xBA, .537 xSLG) wasn’t much better, but his curve (.170 xBA, .303 xSLG) was much more effective. He has tools but needs to deploy them better. He should be in St. Louis’s rotation and has the floor of a middle-innings reliever.

Fajardo is a 19-year-old righty who checks in as Boston’s No. 23 prospect. The Red Sox signed him out of Venezuela for $400,000 in 2024, and he put up solid numbers in his stateside debut in 2025. He went 1–4 with a 2.25 ERA, 1.10 WHIP and 83 strikeouts against 27 walks in 72 innings at two levels. He made 13 starts in A ball and figures to start 2026 in High A. He boasts a two-seamer and a four-seamer that can both hit 97, a good slider, an emerging sweeper and a changeup. He’s a name to watch in 2026.

Aita was a sixth-round pick out of Kennesaw State in 2024 and showed well in his first professional season. He went 5–7 with a 3.98 ERA, 1.05 WHIP and 99 strikeouts against 30 walks in 115 1/3 innings. The 22-year-old isn’t overpowering, with a fastball that sits in the low 90s but has good spin rates and a high-spin rate sweeper. He might be able to get more out of both pitches as he develops. He only walked 6.5% of batters in 2025. Aita has a good frame at 6’4” and 215 pounds, and projects as a backend starter if he continues to progress.

In the end, the Cardinals were able to ship out Contreras for three arms. Dobbins has had success at the MLB level but has a limited ceiling. Aita appeared to be an organizational arm that could make the bigs, while Fajardo has a ton of upside but a wide variance of potential outcomes. It’s not a bad haul for a guy St. Louis was always going to trade.

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