Mariners' Magic Number Shrinking: How Seattle Can Clinch First-Round Bye

Two objectives down, one to go.

The Seattle Mariners have had a week of celebrations. On Tuesday, they clinched their second playoff berth in four years. On Wednesday, they clinched their first American League West division title since 2001.

Now, at the outset of Thursday's action, the Mariners are on the precipice of locking up a first-round bye and advancing directly to the Division Series.

Mariners' magic number for first-round bye: 1

Sep 24, 2025; Seattle, Washington, USA; Seattle Mariners players and coaches celebrate after winning the American League West Division against the Colorado Rockies at T-Mobile Park. Mandatory Credit: Stephen Brashear-Imagn Images | Stephen Brashear-Imagn Images

As the Mariners (89-69) have won six games in a row, the Detroit Tigers (85-73) have been sinking like a stone. That enabled the Cleveland Guardians (86-72) to take a one-game lead on Detroit, with the tiebreaker in hand, with a 5-1 win on Wednesday.

So the division-champion Mariners' path to a top-two seed, and accordingly, a first-round bye, is ensuring they finish ahead of Cleveland. And fortunately, they have the tiebreaker over Cleveland, so all it takes is one more positive result to lock up that first-round bye. Either a win or a Guardians loss would ensure that Seattle is through to the ALDS.

If they do get that first-round bye, the Mariners will be just seven wins away from their first-ever trip to the World Series, and 11 wins away from hoisting the Commissioner's Trophy.

In addition, the Mariners are within striking distance of the No. 1 overall seed in the AL. The New York Yankees and Toronto Blue Jays are now tied at 90-68 atop the AL East, just one game ahead of Seattle. Unfortunately, the Mariners lose the tiebreaker to both teams.

So while the odds aren't in their favor, the Mariners could grab home-field advantage in the AL playoffs if they finish 4-0 and the Yankees and Blue Jays each go 2-2 or worse, or if they go 3-1 and both East teams go 1-3 or worse.

Seattle has one final game on Thursday with the Colorado Rockies before welcoming the Los Angeles Dodgers to T-Mobile Park to finish out the regular season. Then, assuming they take care of business, they can set their sights on next Saturday and a home playoff opener against the winner of one of the wild-card series.

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