Mariners Seize Control: Magic Number, Playoff Odds After Pivotal Win Vs. Astros

Saturday was a chaotic day in the American League playoff picture, but the Seattle Mariners were unquestionably winners in the equation.

For the second straight day, the Mariners took down the Houston Astros in front of a disappointed crowd at Daikin Park. This time, it was a thrilling 6-4 victory, as right fielder Victor Robles made a sensational diving catch on a loopy line drive by Carlos Correa and doubled Jake Myers off second base to end the ballgame.

At 86-69, the Mariners lead the Astros (84-71) by two games entering the Sunday series finale. Plus, the win on Saturday clinched the season-long tiebreaker, meaning all the Mariners have to do to win the AL West now is win no fewer than two less games than the Astros win over their final seven contests.

Mariners' magic number: 5

Sep 20, 2025; Houston, Texas, USA; Seattle Mariners catcher Cal Raleigh (29) receives a trident from shortstop J.P. Crawford (3) after hitting a home run during the third inning against the Houston Astros at Daikin Park. Mandatory Credit: Troy Taormina-Imagn Images | Troy Taormina-Imagn Images

As close as the Mariners are now to winning the West, they still haven't completely nailed down a spot in the postseason yet. The Cleveland Guardians (84-71) aren't losing right now, with 15 wins in their last 16 games and nine W's in a row entering Sunday.

With Cleveland and Houston tied for the final wild card spot and Seattle owning the tiebreaker over both, the Mariners' magic number to clinch a playoff spot is down to five. The Mariners also lead the Boston Red Sox and Detroit Tigers (both 85-70) in the overall AL standings.

The Tigers still lead the AL Central over by a game over the Guardians entering Sunday, but their five-game losing streak has allowed the Mariners to leapfrog them in the hunt for the No. 2 seed and a first-round bye straight to the Division Series.

According to Fangraphs, the Mariners have a 99.4% chance to make the playoffs and a 91.2% chance to win the division entering Sunday's action. After finishing up the Astros showdown, they'll finish the season with home series against the Colorado Rockies and Los Angeles Dodgers.

The Houston series concludes at 6:00 p.m. CT/4:00 p.m. PT on Sunday, with Mariners righty Logan Gilbert taking the mound against Astros righty Jason Alexander.

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