Predicting Trade Decisions On Tarik Skubal, Top 3 Starting Pitchers

The starting pitching market has moved slower than any other facet of this Major League Baseball offseason, and that carries over to trades on top of the free agents still out there.

Tarik Skubal's name hangs in the air over this winter, as the Detroit Tigers have to make the decision on whether to risk losing him for nothing in free agency, or explain to their fans why they moved on from the best starting pitcher in baseball.

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Meanwhile, Freddy Peralta and MacKenzie Gore are also returning All-Stars whose names have frequently been rumored in the trade discussion this winter. And with a number of reports dropping over the past few days, we're in good position to predict whether those pitchers stay or go.

Tarik Skubal: Stays in Detroit

On Tuesday, ESPN's Buster Olney wrote that the "expectation" within Tigers circles was that Skubal would remain in Detroit. That's not to say that offers between now and spring training couldn't tempt the Tigers, but it's hard to see which team would ultimately blow the Tigers away.

If we had to register a guess on who could pull this off, the New York Mets come to mind, seeing as they have a ton of prospect talent close to the majors and a possible willingness to pay top dollar for Skubal's free-agent deal. But unless New York was to part ways with Nolan McLean and/or Carson Benge, the Tigers likely wouldn't be receptive to the proposals.

Freddy Peralta: Traded

This one was a very tough call. The Milwaukee Brewers, like the Tigers, are in a position to contend for the playoffs in 2026. But we've seen them move on from their stars before, including in each of the last two offseasons, when they dealt away Corbin Burnes and Devin Williams in the exact same contract situations that Peralta now occupies.

Ken Rosenthal and Will Sammon of The Athletic reported Monday that the Mets, New York Yankees, Atlanta Braves, Los Angeles Dodgers, and Boston Red Sox could all be in play for Peralta trades. The insiders said that the rumors were about to "resume in earnest," and although it's close to 50-50, the guess here is that one of those teams blows the Brewers away with an offer.

MacKenzie Gore: Traded

We've come to the "easiest" one at the end of the list. The Nationals are pretty clearly in rebuild mode, and even with Gore under contract for 2027 as well, the incentive to move him before his walk year should be enough for new president of baseball operations Paul Toboni to pull the trigger.

Olney wrote Tuesday that some Nationals rivals expect Gore to be moved by mid-February, and even though these predictions are specifically about these pitchers getting traded before the season, Gore is also a prime trade deadline candidate if he somehow sticks around.

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