Rays Staring Down Elimination As High-Stakes Red Sox Series Begins

The Rays can play spoiler, but one loss does them in

Sep 17, 2025; Tampa, Florida, USA; Tampa Bay Rays shortstop Carson Williams (7) greets designated hitter Yandy Diaz (2) after scoring a run against the Toronto Blue Jays in the seventh inning at George M. Steinbrenner Field. Mandatory Credit: Nathan Ray Seebeck-Imagn Images | Nathan Ray Seebeck-Imagn Images

Eighteen of 30 Major League Baseball teams are left out of the playoffs every year, and it would take the most miraculous finish of all time for the Tampa Bay Rays to avoid becoming one of the 18 this year.

Until the final days before the All-Star break, the Rays spent most of the first half of this season in playoff position. But a four-game sweep against the Boston Red Sox marked a crucial turning point, as the Rays dropped from 50-43 on July 11 to 75-78 entering play on Friday.

The Rays could very well meet their unceremonious end on Friday as the Red Sox come rolling into Tampa for the two teams' final matchup of the year. But if they play some good baseball this weekend, the Rays could also have a grand time playing spoiler.

Rays, Red Sox enter weekend series with drastically different goals

Jul 11, 2025; Boston, Massachusetts, USA; The Boston Red Sox celebrate their win over the Tampa Bay Rays in nine innings at Fenway Park. Mandatory Credit: David Butler II-Imagn Images | David Butler II-Imagn Images

Boston holds the third and final American League wild card spot heading into Friday's series opener, as ace Garrett Crochet will square off with Tampa Bay's Drew Rasmussen. The Red Sox are 83-70, so a win would guarantee they finish no worse than 84-78, and that the Rays would finish no better than 83-79.

In short, one loss in the three-game series eliminates the Rays for good. And even if Tampa Bay wins every game the rest of the way, the odds are still greatly stacked against a return trip to October.

However, the Rays can still entertain themselves by trying to play spoiler for their division rivals. The Red Sox had a 98.2% chance of making the playoffs entering play on Sept. 3, per Fangraphs, but their 5-8 record since has dropped those odds to 83.0%.

The Red Sox's offense has been miserable in that 13-game stretch, which began the day after star rookie outfielder Roman Anthony was lost to an oblique injury. Rasmussen, Adrian Houser, and Ryan Pepiot will look to keep that offense frustrated and nervous about the team's impending collapse.

There's no consolation prize that can truly make up for missing the playoffs, but knocking the Red Sox out would still feel good for a Rays team with a lot of young players.

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