UFC Fight Night Tampa – Colby Covington vs. Joaquin Buckley Fight Card Predictions

Check out predictions for every fight at the final UFC event of the year.
Stephen R. Sylvanie-Imagn Images

The UFC heads to Amalie Arena in Tampa, FL this Saturday (December 14) for the promotion’s final event of the year, and MMA KO’s Drew Beaupré is here to provide predictions for all 13 of the night’s fights.

UFC Fight Night Tampa Main Card

Colby Covington vs. Joaquin Buckley

Covington’s title fight against Leon Edwards last December was uninspiring to say the least, and if he has any intention of challenging for the belt again then this matchup with Buckley feels like a must-win for the former interim champion.

UFC Fight Night Tampa – Colby Covington vs. Joaquin Buckley Fight Card Predictions
Dec 16, 2023; Las Vegas, Nevada, USA; Leon Edwards (red gloves) fights Colby Covington (blue gloves) during UFC 296 at T-Mobile Arena. | Stephen R. Sylvanie-Imagn Images

The performance against Edwards may have been a sign that Covington’s body can’t maintain the high-paced wrestling style that made him such an effective fighter for so many years, and while I have concerns about this being Buckley’s first five-round fight I have to pick “New Mansa” to extend his welterweight win streak.

(Pick: Buckley)

Muhammad Mokaev Responds to "Dirty" Fighter Jab from Manel Kape before UFC Tampa

Cub Swanson vs. Billy Quarantillo

Three impressive wins after joining the UFC off of Dana White’s Contender Series established Quarantillo as a rising featherweight contender, but since then he’s alternated wins and losses across his last seven fights.

UFC Fight Night Tampa – Colby Covington vs. Joaquin Buckley Fight Card Predictions
Aug 5, 2023; Nashville, Tennessee, USA; Billy Quarantillo (red gloves) fights Damon Jackson (blue gloves) during UFC Fight Night at Bridgestone Arena. | Christopher Hanewinckel-Imagn Images

Swanson has actually also followed the same pattern across his last seven outings after snapping a four-fight skid in 2019, and as much as I’d like to see the 41-year-old continue to defy father time I’m going to slightly lean with Quarantillo here.

(Pick: Quarantillo)

Manel Kape vs. Bruno Silva

Kape fell just short of a title shot when he lost to Muhammad Mokaev at UFC 304, and now “Starboy” will try to kick off a new winning streak against a surging opponent.

UFC Fight Night Tampa – Colby Covington vs. Joaquin Buckley Fight Card Predictions
Sep 9, 2023; Sydney, NSW, AUSTRALIA; Manel Kape (red gloves) fights Felipe Dos Santos (blue gloves) during UFC 293 at Qudos Bank Arena. | Jasmin Frank-Imagn Images

Silva’s current four-fight finishing streak has seen the Brazilian vault into the flyweight rankings, but other than Cody Durden those wins haven’t come against particularly established names and I have a hard time picking against Kape if this fight largely plays out on the feet.

(Pick: Kape)

Vitor Petrino vs. Dustin Jacoby

Petrino suffered a stunning upset-loss to Anthony Smith in his last outing, and had he won that fight the Brazilian would have found himself in the UFC’s light heavyweight Top 15.

UFC Fight Night Tampa – Colby Covington vs. Joaquin Buckley Fight Card Predictions
Dec 16, 2023; Las Vegas, Nevada, USA; Alonzo Menifield (red gloves) fights Dustin Jacoby (blue gloves) during UFC 296 at T-Mobile Arena. | Stephen R. Sylvanie-Imagn Images

“Icão” won’t be able to break into the rankings against Jacoby, but given how the former kickboxer has looked as of late this matchup seems like a chance for Petrino to get back on track by scoring another finish after suffering the first loss of his career.

(Pick: Petrino)

Adrian Yanez vs. Daniel Marcos

As is often the case on UFC cards these days, this matchup between unranked bantamweights has all the makings of a potential Fight of the Night at UFC Tampa.

UFC Fight Night Tampa – Colby Covington vs. Joaquin Buckley Fight Card Predictions
Jun 18, 2022; Austin, Texas, USA; Adrian Yanez (red gloves) reacts after his fight against Tony Kelley (blue gloves) during UFC Fight Night at Moody Center. | Scott Wachter-Imagn Images

Yanez returned to the win column in a big way against Vinicius Salvador after being stopped in back-to-back fights, and I think the 31-year-old has the skills necessary to hand Marcos what would be his first loss and halt the significant momentum he’s already established in the UFC.

(Pick: Yanez)

Navajo Stirling vs. Tuco Tokkos


I don’t love seeing fighters with so few MMA bouts competing in the UFC, but it was no surprise to see Stirling earn a contract after knocking out Phillip Latu on Dana White’s Contender Series in September.

UFC Fight Night Tampa – Colby Covington vs. Joaquin Buckley Fight Card Predictions
Stirling earned a UFC contract on Dana White's Contender Series. | (Zuffa LLC)

Tokkos was matched up with another undefeated finisher in his UFC debut against Oumar Sy, and unfortunately for him I don’t expect this fight against Stirling to go much differently.

(Pick: Stirling)

Kamaru Usman Reveals 'Worry' for Colby Covington vs. Joaquin Buckley at UFC Tampa

UFC Fight Night Tampa Preliminary Card

Michael Johnson vs. Ottman Azaitar

UFC Fight Night Tampa – Colby Covington vs. Joaquin Buckley Fight Card Predictions
Dec 3, 2022; Orlando, Florida, USA; Michael Johnson (red gloves) fights Marc Diakiese (blue gloves) during UFC Fight Night at Amway Center. | Nathan Ray Seebeck-Imagn Images

I’m glad that Azaitar took some time off after back-to-back knockout losses, but while I do think he’s capable of sleeping Johnson early here I have to side with “The Menace” to put in a veteran performance and secure his second win in a row.

(Pick: Johnson)

Joel Alvarez vs. Drakkar Klose

UFC Fight Night Tampa – Colby Covington vs. Joaquin Buckley Fight Card Predictions
May 4, 2024; Rio de Janeiro, RJ, BRAZIL; Joaquim Silva (red gloves) fights Drakkar Klose (blue gloves) during UFC 301 at Rio Arena. | Jason Silva-Imagn Images

I’m surprised to see Alvarez lined as such a significant favorite considering Klose’s UFC experience and the fact that he’s on a four-fight win streak, but while I do think there’s upset-potential in this fight I’ll side with Alvarez to utilize a pretty significant height and reach advantage.

(Pick: Alvarez)

Sean Woodson vs. Fernando Padilla

UFC Fight Night Tampa – Colby Covington vs. Joaquin Buckley Fight Card Predictions
May 11, 2024; St. Louis, Missouri, USA; Alex Caceres (red gloves) fights Sean Woodson (blue gloves) during UFC Fight Night at Enterprise Center. | Jeff Le-Imagn Images

Padilla’s finishing ability and near-reach parity with Woodson are certainly cause for concern here, but I have to pick “The Sniper” to score another win as he continues his march towards a fight against ranked featherweight opposition.

(Pick: Woodson)

Miles Johns vs. Felipe Lima

UFC Fight Night Tampa – Colby Covington vs. Joaquin Buckley Fight Card Predictions
Aug 7, 2021; Houston, Texas, USA; Miles Johns (red gloves) fights Anderson Dos Santos (blue gloves) during UFC 265 at Toyota Center. | Troy Taormina-Imagn Images

Lima rightfully has quite a bit of hype behind after he stepped up for a short-notice UFC debut in June and submitted Muhammad Naimov, and while Johns will certainly challenge the Brazilian here “Jungle Boy” should pick up his second UFC win and fourteenth victory in a row.

(Pick: Lima)

Miranda Maverick vs. Jamey-Lyn Horth

UFC Fight Night Tampa – Colby Covington vs. Joaquin Buckley Fight Card Predictions
Feb 17, 2024; Anaheim, California, USA; Miranda Maverick moves in with a kick against Andrea Lee during UFC 298 at Honda Center. | Gary A. Vasquez-Imagn Images

Horth deserves major props for making a quick turnaround here after defeating Ivana Petrović in November, but unfortunately for her Maverick is a clear step up in competition and is riding the momentum of three-straight wins.

(Pick: Maverick)

Davey Grant vs. Ramon Taveras

UFC Fight Night Tampa – Colby Covington vs. Joaquin Buckley Fight Card Predictions
Jul 22, 2023; London, UNITED KINGDOM; Davey Grant (red gloves) fights Daniel Marcos (blue gloves) during UFC Fight Night at O2 Arena. | Per Haljestam-Imagn Images

Taveras feels like the smart pick here given that he’s the younger man with less fight mileage, but even at 38 years old Grant is still a hard hitter and is more than capable of upsetting “The Savage” when the pair meet in Tampa.

(Pick: Grant)

UFC Champ Ilia Topuria Told He Has ‘3 Good Fights’ Left before Lightweight Move

Josefine Knutsson vs. Piera Rodriguez

UFC Fight Night Tampa – Colby Covington vs. Joaquin Buckley Fight Card Predictions
Sep 16, 2023; Las Vegas, Nevada, USA; Josefine Knutsson (red gloves) fights Marnic Mann (blue gloves) during UFC Fight Night at T-Mobile Arena. | Stephen R. Sylvanie-Imagn Images

Roridugez could be fighting for her spot on the UFC roster following back-to-back losses, and unfortunately for her she’s scheduled to kick off UFC Tampa against a talented fighter with an undefeated record in Knutsson.

(Pick: Knutsson)

MMA KO will be providing comprehensive coverage for UFC Fight Night Tampa all throughout fight week, and be sure to check back on our homepage for a preview of the event as well as live results and highlights on fight night.

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Drew Beaupre
DREW BEAUPRE

Drew is an MMA writer that regularly watches regional events in addition to major promotions such as the UFC, PFL, Bellator, and ONE Championship. He joined MMA Knockout when it was founded in 2023.