UFC 294 Betting Guide, Predictions & Suggestions - Makhachev vs Volkanovski, Chimaev vs Usman
UFC 294 is upon us, and with it comes two monumental fights - both of which came on short notice! Alexander Volkanovski gets a second crack at the lightweight throne, and Kamaru Usman makes his middleweight debut against one of the most hyped prospects in modern MMA. As well as all this, a stacked undercard full of intense prospects is set to blow the lid off of the Etihad Arena.
There are some live underdogs on this card, and some fights I'd even consider as locks.
But first, how did we do last time?
Context: These betting guides began with $10. This is the fifth betting guide using that money.
Our last betting article was for UFC Fight Night: Green vs. Dawson. We got 6/10 predictions correct, and 5/10 bets cashed in. We made a small profit, turning our $12.04 into $13.12:
Bets for Dawson vs. Green
I feel that we were robbed of our Murata pick, 13/14 media members scored it in her favor, this cost us the full prelim parlay which would have cashed in almost $60 (just from $1!).
The Philipe Lins fight was also cancelled on the night, and Dawson's shock defeat cost us the main card parlay. Hey, it's MMA, probably the most unpredictable sport on the planet. With that said, let's get into UFC 294.
The hyped Sharabutdin Magomedov makes his UFC debut
Shara Bullet
UFC 294 Odds, Predictions & Bets - Prelims
(Odds via bestfightodds.com, subject to change)
Bruno Silva (+235) vs. Sharabutdin Magomedov (-290)
Silva is a live dog here, Magomedov - whilst incredibly hyped - has fought relatively untested opponents on the regional scene (his last opponent was 11-10). "Bullet" is a kickboxer first and foremost, and shouldn't offer up the grappling threat that Silva is susceptible to. I pick Silva for the upset, and he'll make a good risky prelim single.
Pick: Silva, Risky Bet: Silva outright
Victoria Dudakova (-550) vs. Jinh Yu Frey (+410)
Dudakova is the favorite for good reason, but we haven't really seen her ceiling yet as her last fight was won by injury. The margins are too wide to justify picking Dudakova, but a super-risky Frey pick would net you some big money. It's WMMA after all, super unpredictable.
Pick: Dudakova, Bet: Avoid
Nathaniel Wood (-310) vs. Muhammad Naimov (+250)
Bit of a step down in competition for Wood, who was skirting the rankings with his last victory. Naimov is incredibly dangerous and went strike-for-strike with Jamie Mullarkey - getting the KO in his debut.
Despite being the big favorite here, Wood is quite hittable, which calls his durability into question especially when Andre Fili had him hurt bad. If Gafurov finds the mark, the fight's over. Naimov is another live dog, I pick Wood but a risky bet on Naimov doesn't hurt.
Pick: Wood, Bet: Safe Wood / Risky Naimov
Anshul Jubli (-270) vs. Mike Breeden (+220)
This is definitely meant to be a gimme fight for Jubli, as Breeden is on a three-fight skid. Jubli is a highly-regarded MFN champ, and one of the hottest prospects hailing from India.
Breeden's best chances are on the feet, but Jubli has found his success on the ground. Normally I'd say that someone like Jubli is too untested, but he's actually proven his worth on 'Road to UFC', so I give him the advantage coming into this matchup.
Pick: Jubli, Bet: Jubli outright
Abu Azaitar (+210) vs. Sedriques Dumas (-258)
Dumas looked much improved in his last fight after looking completely helpless in his UFC debut; he was literally like a different fighter. It's exciting to see if he can continue that progression.
Azaitar reminds me of a bull, running his head into his opponent's chest and winging wild overhands on either side. Unlike his brother, he's is not a prolific finisher. He's also 37 with questionable striking defense and cardio. I believe if Dumas can improve upon his last performance, then it's his fight to win.
Pick: Dumas, Bet: Avoid
Javid Basharat (-535) vs. Victor Henry (+400)
First of all, the odds shouldn't be this wide. Both of these guys are super talented, but Henry is being underestimated here. Henry is a flow-state striker, and put on a masterclass against elite opposition in his UFC debut; his only UFC defeat is to Rafael Assuncao!
This is one of those fights where I'm still picking the favorite to win because Basharat has been impressive, but It's worth putting some money on the live underdog. Henry is as live as they come for odds this wide.
Pick: Basharat, Risky Bet: Henry outright
Mohammad Yahya (+142) vs. Trevor Peek (-170)
Peek is relentlessly aggressive and uses pure brawn just about everywhere the fight goes, lacking proper technique along the way. Anyone with good footwork or thudding power should be able to handle him.
That said, Yahya's quality of opposition in UAE is hit and miss, he's beaten 10-3 PFL fighters, 1-2, and 8-8 record journeymen on his path to the UAE lightweight title. He also has this hands down style that leaves him wide open for Peek's counters, like this example here:
Peek's insane durability and relentless aggression should win him this fight.
Pick: Peek, Bet: Peek outright
Muhammad Mokaev (-395) vs. Tim Elliott (+310)
If there's ever a time to make a prop against Mokaev, it's this fight. He's almost been submitted twice in his last two fights, and Elliott is the perfect litmus test to see if Mokaev can reach the top ranks.
Elliott has proven time and again that he is the elite gatekeeper for flyweight, he has a well-rounded striking game with some smothering wrestling as well. If he can get Mokaev in positions that Gordon and Filho got him in, the fight's over. If Mokaev can make Elliott look easy, then pick him from now on.
Pick: Elliott, Bet: Elliott outright
- Prelim picks: Silva, Dudakova, Wood, Jubli, Dumas, Peek, Elliott
Kamaru Usman puts it all on the line in his short-notice middleweight debut.
UFC
UFC 294 Odds, Predictions & Bets - Prelims
(Odds via bestfightodds.com, subject to change)
Said Nurmagomedov (-230) vs. Muin Gafurov (+190)
Gafurov had an action-packed three round affair with Castaneda earlier this year. It was a competitive fight, but Castaneda currently isn't on the same level as Nurmagomedov - a fringe top-15 contender. Gafurov's all-out style was enabled by Castaneda's willingness to stand and trade, but I believe Nurmagomedov will pick him apart at range.
Pick: Nurmagomedov, Bet: Nurmagomedov outright
Ikram Aliskerov (-575) vs. Warlley Alves (+425)
The odds are too wide to justify anything with Aliskerov. Alves, however, is being overlooked. He has sneaky, dynamic striking and a solid submission game. I'll pick Alves as a wild card bet for the main card.
Pick: Aliskerov, Bet: Alves
Johnny Walker (+285) vs. Magomed Ankalaev (-360)
Ankalaev struggled too much with Blachowicz to discredit Walker in this matchup. The Russian fighter had a very hard time with some rudimentary striking techniques, and showed no urgency or adjustments over five rounds. I feel that Walker could pull off an upset just by being the more athletic and merciless fighter. It's also a safe observation to say Walker's leg kicks could be a problem for Ankalaev in this fight. I'm going with the underdog for the upset.
Pick: Walker, Risky bet: Walker
Khamzat Chimaev (-340) vs. Kamaru Usman (+270)
You're only as good as your last fight, and Usman didn't look so hot against Edwards. He was slow, lumbering, overreached and had no explosivity. Khamzat is going to be quick, snappy, powerful and relentless, at least in those early rounds. A lot of people are drawing comparisons between their fights with Gilbert Burns, but I put this down to Chimaev resting on his laurels. He won't make that mistake again.
Pick: Chimaev, Bet: Chimaev
Islam Makhachev (-250) vs. Alexander Volkanovski (+205)
I'm pulling for Volk but I don't think his hubris does him any favors. He was running away with their first fight at the end, but in terms of the adjustments needed by both fighters, I believe Islam needs to make the least. Volk fights on a razor's edge, but Islam was only in danger in the dying moments of round 5. If Islam has made the necessary adjustments to his cardio and grappling, I can see him winning.
Pick: Makhachev, Bet: Makhachev
- Main card picks: Nurmagomedov, Alves, Walker, Chimaev, Makhachev
UFC 294: Official Bets & Parlays
Prelims
- Safe prelim single: Wood outright -- $10 to win $3.23
- Prelim single: Jubli outright -- $10 to win $3.70
- Prelim single: Peek outright -- $10 to win $5.88
- Risky prelim single: Silva outright -- $10 to win $23.50
- Risky prelim single: Naimov outright -- $10 to win $25
- Big underdog single: Henry outright -- $10 to win $40
- Big underdog single: Elliott outright -- $10 to win $31
- Prelim parlay: Jubli, Peek -- $10 to win $11.77
- Risky prelim parlay: Silva, Elliott -- $10 to win $127.36
- Big risk parlay: Silva, Wood, Jubli, Dumas, Henry, Peek, Elliott $10 to win $2,733.07
Main card
- Safe single: Chimaev outright -- $10 to win $2.94
- Risky main: Walker outright -- $10 to win $28.50
- Super risky main: Alves outright -- $10 to win $42.50
- Main parlay: Nurmagomedov, Chimaev -- $10 to win $8.57
- Risky parlay: Walker, Alves -- $10 to win $192.13
Please gamble responsibly.
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